These Great Graphics, composed on Bloomberg, show the US and euro area recent purchasing managers surveys (ISM for the US).
The top chart shows the results of the manufacturing survey, with the US in yellow and the EMU in white. You can readily see 1) that the US had suffered more in the downturn, but rebounded stronger than the euro area and 2) that last spring, was the cyclical turning point for the euro area manufacturing. The gap between the US and EMU has nearly closed.
The bottom chart are the results of the non-manufacturing surveys. The same general pattern is evident, with one notable exception: the euro area non-manufacturing survey is above the US for the first time since H1 2011. We suspect the it is a bit of a fluke that the US reading slumped to its lowest level since February 2010.
We argue H2 13 US economic activity was above trend, driven by transitory factors, like inventory building. The US economy is growing below trend now, and also we suspect, for largely transitory reasons, including the inventory cycle and weather.
The top chart shows the results of the manufacturing survey, with the US in yellow and the EMU in white. You can readily see 1) that the US had suffered more in the downturn, but rebounded stronger than the euro area and 2) that last spring, was the cyclical turning point for the euro area manufacturing. The gap between the US and EMU has nearly closed.The bottom chart are the results of the non-manufacturing surveys. The same general pattern is evident, with one notable exception: the euro area non-manufacturing survey is above the US for the first time since H1 2011. We suspect the it is a bit of a fluke that the US reading slumped to its lowest level since February 2010.
We argue H2 13 US economic activity was above trend, driven by transitory factors, like inventory building. The US economy is growing below trend now, and also we suspect, for largely transitory reasons, including the inventory cycle and weather.
Great Graphic: US and EMU Purchasing Managers Indices
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
March 07, 2014
Rating:
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
March 07, 2014
Rating:
