This Great Graphic from Calculated Risk puts the US housing market recovery in the context of past recoveries. Two points are clear. Single family house starts is recovering and it is historically weak. The July data is slated for release on Thursday, August 16.
A small decline is expected after the 6.9% increase in June. June starts of 760k was the strongest since October 2008. Permits peaked in May at 784k, the highest since September 2008. A small increase is anticipated in July, but not enough to offset June's 3.7% decline.