Holiday Note

April 19, 2019
Overview:  Many financial centers are closed today.  These include Australia, India, most European markets, and the US.  In Asia, equity markets that were open moved higher.  The Nikkei, which gapped higher on Monday, rose 0.5% today for a 1.5% gain on the week.  China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%, lifting the weekly increase to 2.6%.    The…
Holiday Note Holiday Note Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 19, 2019 Rating: 5

EMU Disappointment Lifts the Dollar

April 18, 2019
Overview: A bout of profit-taking in equities began in the US yesterday and has carried through Asia and Europe today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the first time in five days, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a six-day advance.  The Nikkei gapped higher to start the week and a gap low tomorrow would undermine the technical outloo…
EMU Disappointment Lifts the Dollar EMU Disappointment Lifts the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 18, 2019 Rating: 5

Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless

April 17, 2019
Overview: The veracity of Chinese data will be questioned by economists, but today's upbeat reports round out a picture that began with stronger exports and a surge in lending.  Chinese officials, we argue, had a "Draghi moment" and decided to do "whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy in the face of US tariffs and du…
Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless Veracity of Chinese Data Questioned, but Lifts Sentiment Nevertheless Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 17, 2019 Rating: 5

Cool Video: Trump Ahead in 2020?

April 16, 2019
Goldman Sachs opined that President Trump had an edge to win the 2020 presidential election and Fox Business thought it was newsworthy and invited to me join the discussion. 
First, I tried playing down the significance of Goldman's call.  The markets have anticipated this.   redictIt.Org has shown the President to be an easy favorite since the…
Cool Video: Trump Ahead in 2020? Cool Video:  Trump Ahead in 2020? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 16, 2019 Rating: 5

The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid

April 16, 2019
Overview: Amid light news, global equities are moving higher   In Asia, the Nikkei rose to a new high since early December, while the Shanghai Composite rose 2.3% and posted its highest close since March 2018. European equities are solid, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 moving higher for the fifth consecutive session.  US shares are trading higher an…
The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid The Dollar and Stocks Catch a Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 16, 2019 Rating: 5

Redemption Monday

April 15, 2019
Overview: The holiday-shortened week is off to a slow, tentative start.  The surge of the S&P 500 before the weekend failed to inspire today.  Asia markets were mostly firmer, led by Japan, while China, Hong Kong, and Singapore moved lower.  The Nikkei gapped higher, jumping above the 22k level that had been holding it back.  It is at its best…
Redemption Monday Redemption Monday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 15, 2019 Rating: 5
The Dollar's Technical Picture Turns more Nuanced and the Significance of the Gaps in the S&P 500 The Dollar's Technical Picture Turns more Nuanced and the Significance of the Gaps in the S&P 500 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 14, 2019 Rating: 5

Dollar Super Cycle Revisited

April 13, 2019
In the big picture, we argue that the dollar’s appreciation is part of the third significant dollar rally since the end of Bretton Woods. The first was the Reagan-Volcker dollar rally, spurred by a policy mix of tight monetary and loose fiscal policies. The rally ended with G7 intervention to knock it down in September 1985. After a ten-year bear …
Dollar Super Cycle Revisited Dollar Super Cycle Revisited Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 13, 2019 Rating: 5

Euro Bid Above $1.13 for the First Time this Month

April 12, 2019
Overview:  The consolidative week in the capital markets is drawing to a close.  Equity markets are narrowly mixed.  In Asia, most indices outside of the greater China (China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) edged higher, leaving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slightly lower on the week.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index snapped a ten-day rally yesterday and i…
Euro Bid Above $1.13 for the First Time this Month Euro Bid Above $1.13 for the First Time this Month Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 12, 2019 Rating: 5
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