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The Dollar Remains the Least Ugly

May 19, 2019
Neither trade tensions nor perceptions that the probability of Fed rate cuts was able to derail the mighty dollar, which rose against all currencies but two: the Swiss franc among the majors and the Russian ruble among the emerging market currencies.   The US continues to be perceived as the best positioned to weather the storm that it is helping …
The Dollar Remains the Least Ugly The Dollar Remains the Least Ugly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 19, 2019 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead featuring the Battle for 7.0

May 18, 2019
The strategic objective is to integrate China into the world economy.  The liberal international solution was trade, investment flows, and cultural exchanges.  The rise of nationalism and China's own willingness to flaunt the international rules are defeating the strategy.   President Trump may suggest that China would prefer to negotiate wit…
The Week Ahead featuring the Battle for 7.0 The Week Ahead featuring the Battle for 7.0 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 18, 2019 Rating: 5
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China Questions US Sincerity

May 17, 2019
Overview:  Since the presidential tweets on May 3, the US had the initiative in the negotiations with China, but today, China has pushed back.  It is cool to the idea promoted by the US that trade talks will resume shortly.  Now it may take the Trump-Xi meeting at the end of next month to restart talks.   This, coupled with US sanctions on Huawei …
China Questions US Sincerity China Questions US Sincerity Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 17, 2019 Rating: 5
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US Struggles to Strike a Less Strident Tone

May 16, 2019
Overview: Retail sales and industrial production disappointed in both the US and China prior to the end of the tariff truce, declared by the US in a series of presidential tweets on May 5.  The reaction function of the US to the drop in equities was to play down tensions on three fronts.  First, a US team is expected to return to Beijing in the co…
US Struggles to Strike a Less Strident Tone US Struggles to Strike a Less Strident Tone Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 16, 2019 Rating: 5
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The Thumbnail Sketch of the Euro You are Looking For

May 15, 2019
Here is an overview of the broad macro considerations for the euro, with some thoughts about the price action, including volatility.   It is shared not so much as an argument as a sketch the considerations that drive a view. 
1. An 18-month low for the euro was set on April 26 a little above $1.11, immediately after the US reported a stronger than …
The Thumbnail Sketch of the Euro You are Looking For The Thumbnail Sketch of the Euro You are Looking For Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 15, 2019 Rating: 5
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Angst Continues

May 15, 2019
Overview:  Disappointing Chinese April data spurred speculation that more stimulus will be forthcoming and bolsters hopes that a trade deal with the US by the end of next month helped Asian Pacific equities advance for the first time this week.  Indonesia, which reported a record trade deficit on the back of collapsing exports (-13.1% year-over-ye…
Angst Continues Angst Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 15, 2019 Rating: 5
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Why China Finds it Difficult to Weaponize the Yuan and US Treasuries

May 14, 2019
It looks so easy on paper.  China can sell its holding of US Treasuries and/or weaken the yuan to offset the tariffs and boost exports.  It is the first and easy answer from strategists, journalists, and some academics.   Often times, it is presented as a novel idea; as if diplomats, investors, and policymakers have not thought it. 
The point is no…
Why China Finds it Difficult to Weaponize the Yuan and US Treasuries Why China Finds it Difficult to Weaponize the Yuan and US Treasuries Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2019 Rating: 5
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Too Weak to Muster Much of a Turnaround Tuesday, Markets See Small Reprieve Too Weak to Muster Much of a Turnaround Tuesday, Markets See Small Reprieve Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2019 Rating: 5
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Investors Still Looking for New Balance

May 13, 2019
Overview:  The end of the tariff truce between the US and China has discombobulated investors.  They had been repeatedly that a deal was close and there had even been talk at the US Treasury about where Trump and Xi should meet to sign the agreement.  Now China was given around a month to capitulate to US demands or face a 25% tariff on their rema…
Investors Still Looking for New Balance Investors Still Looking for New Balance Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 13, 2019 Rating: 5
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