Equities Waiver, the Dollar Does Not

April 25, 2019
Overview:  After closing at record highs on Tuesday, the S&P 500 slipped yesterday, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 snapped an eight-session advance.  Asia followed suit, with the Shanghai Composite posting its biggest loss (~2.4%) in over a month.  It is off about 4.6% this week, which if sustained tomorrow, would be the largest loss in six month…
Equities Waiver, the Dollar Does Not Equities Waiver, the Dollar Does Not Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 25, 2019 Rating: 5

Dollar Bloc in Focus, while Germany's IFO Disappoints

April 24, 2019
Overview:  The record high close for the S&P 500 failed to lift global equities. Far East trading was mixed.  The Nikkei opened strong and closed weaker, while the Shanghai Composite began softer and closed firmly.  Australian shares and bonds rallied on the back of mild inflation, while the Australian dollar tumbled.  Oil in easing for the fi…
Dollar Bloc in Focus, while Germany's IFO Disappoints Dollar Bloc in Focus, while Germany's IFO Disappoints Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 24, 2019 Rating: 5

Modest Thoughts on Central Bank Independence

April 23, 2019
Indications that the Trump Administration is considering nominating Moore and Cain to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve has stirred up an international controversy over the independence of central banks. Cain withdrew his name from consideration yesterday, though the mere floating of his name had generated much consternation.  Although…
Modest Thoughts on Central Bank Independence Modest Thoughts on Central Bank Independence Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 23, 2019 Rating: 5

Oil Extends Gains While Markets Await Fresh Incentives

April 23, 2019
Overview: Financial centers that have been closed for the extended holiday have re-opened, but the news stream is light and market participants are digesting developments and positioning for this week's central bank meetings and the first look at Q1 US GDP. The US decision to end exemptions to the embargo against Iran led to a surge in oil pri…
Oil Extends Gains While Markets Await Fresh Incentives Oil Extends Gains While Markets Await Fresh Incentives Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 23, 2019 Rating: 5

Cool Video: Discussion of the Deflationary Risks in Japan and Brexit

April 22, 2019
I joined CNBC Asia's Amanda Drury and Sri Jegarajah via Skype earlier today as the new week was beginning in Asia.  In this three minute clip, we discuss the outlook for the BOJ and sterling.  
Most of the rise in Japan's inflation is due to food and energy prices.  Despite an aggressive balance-sheet expansion effort, the BOJ has missed i…
Cool Video: Discussion of the Deflationary Risks in Japan and Brexit Cool Video: Discussion of the Deflationary Risks in Japan and Brexit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 22, 2019 Rating: 5

Surge in Oil Punctures Holiday Markets

April 22, 2019
Overview: With many centers closed for the extended holiday, the calm in the global capital markets has been punctuated by reports that the US is considering ending its exemption for eight countries to have bought Iranian oil over the past six months.  The waivers were to end on May 2, but previously it was thought that a couple of waivers, like f…
Surge in Oil Punctures Holiday Markets Surge in Oil Punctures Holiday Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 22, 2019 Rating: 5

Be Careful of Playing for the Breakout

April 21, 2019
The US dollar rose against all the major currencies but the Japanese yen.  Its net loss against the yen, less than 0.1% was a fluke.  The dollar was confined to a 40 tick range against the yen for the entire week.  It appears to be the among the narrowest weekly ranges since at least 2000.  The dollar is at the upper end of its recent ranges agai…
Be Careful of Playing for the Breakout Be Careful of Playing for the Breakout Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 21, 2019 Rating: 5

Six Events to Watch Next Week

April 20, 2019
The divergence thesis that drives our constructive outlook for the dollar received more support last week than we expected.  A few hours after investors learned that Japan's flash PMI remained below the 50 boom/bust level, Europe reported disappointing PMI data as well.  And a few hours after that the US reported that retail sales surged in Ma…
Six Events to Watch Next Week Six Events to Watch Next Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 20, 2019 Rating: 5

Holiday Note

April 19, 2019
Overview:  Many financial centers are closed today.  These include Australia, India, most European markets, and the US.  In Asia, equity markets that were open moved higher.  The Nikkei, which gapped higher on Monday, rose 0.5% today for a 1.5% gain on the week.  China's Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%, lifting the weekly increase to 2.6%.    The…
Holiday Note Holiday Note Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 19, 2019 Rating: 5
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