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Cool Video: OIl, ECB, and Animal Spirits

April 08, 2020
I had the privilege to join Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade (from a remote location) this morning to talk about the global markets.  
I make four points.  First, the reversal of the S&P 500 yesterday set the tone for Asia and Europe.  Volatility throughout the capital markets remains elevated, even if off the peaks.  
Second, investors are …
Cool Video: OIl, ECB, and Animal Spirits Cool Video: OIl, ECB, and Animal Spirits Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 08, 2020 Rating: 5
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Flavor of the Day: Consolidation

April 08, 2020
Overview: Global equities are struggling after the S&P 500 staged a dramatic reversal yesterday. The early 3.5% gain was completely unwound and closed slightly lower.  With few exceptions (e.g., Japan and the Philippines), most equity markets in the Asia Pacific region and Europe are lower. Benchmark 10 year bond yields are consolidating yeste…
Flavor of the Day: Consolidation Flavor of the Day: Consolidation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 08, 2020 Rating: 5
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Hope (and the IMF) Stall Dollar Rally

April 07, 2020
Overview:  In the war against the novel coronavirus, humans are striking back, and appear to be gradually getting the upper end, especially in place in Europe, and possibly the US, which has been particularly hard hit.  Risk appetites are surging.  Nearly all the equity markets are higher today, with India playing catch-up after yesterday's ho…
Hope (and the IMF) Stall Dollar Rally Hope (and the IMF) Stall Dollar Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 07, 2020 Rating: 5
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Glimmer of Hope Lifts Markets

April 06, 2020
Overview:  Reports suggesting that some of the hot spots for the virus contagion appear to be leveling off, and this is helping underpin risk appetites today.  The curve seems to be flattening in Italy, Spain, and France.  In the US, there are some early signs of leveling off in NY, and now, the number of states with infection rates above 20% is l…
Glimmer of Hope Lifts Markets Glimmer of Hope Lifts Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2020 Rating: 5
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Another Look at the Price Action

April 05, 2020
The US dollar's strength appears to confound fundamental and technical considerations. The cross-currency basis swaps have swung hard from a large dollar premium to a record discount (against the euro, sterling, and yen). No fewer than 10 central banks drew on the currency swap lines with the Federal Reserve, including three from the emerging …
Another Look at the Price Action Another Look at the Price Action Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 05, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Long Winter

April 04, 2020
G7 officials used to say that foreign exchange markets should be driven by fundamentals. It struck some as vacuous. What else could drive the largest part of the capital markets, a $6.6 trillion a day turnover prior to the crisis but macro? The challenge is really which macro factors should determine exchange rates.
There seems to a rough consensus…
The Long Winter The Long Winter Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 04, 2020 Rating: 5
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Oil Firm, Greenback Extends Gains

April 03, 2020
Overview:  Global equities are finishing the week on a soggy tone despite the 2%+ gains seen in the US yesterday. The extension of shutdowns, rising contagion and fatality rate, and imploding economies weigh on prices.  In Asia, Korea and Indonesia bucked the trend to most minor gains.  Europe is giving back yesterday's gains, and the Dow Jone…
Oil Firm, Greenback Extends Gains Oil Firm, Greenback Extends Gains Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2020 Rating: 5
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Optimism on Oil Deal Steadies Risk Appetites...for the Moment

April 02, 2020
Overview: After US stocks dropped more than 4% yesterday, investor sentiment has improved, apparently sparked by ideas that the pain will force oil producers to find a way to reduce supply. Oil prices have surged, with the May WTI contract rallying around 7%. Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher, with Japan and Australia the notable exceptions…
Optimism on Oil Deal Steadies Risk Appetites...for the Moment Optimism on Oil Deal Steadies Risk Appetites...for the Moment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2020 Rating: 5
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April Monthly

April 01, 2020
In March,  the G10 and many emerging market countries, governments, and central banks unveiled large emergency measures.  The motivation is to blunt the economic impact of the novel coronavirus that has seen more than two billion people around the world have their movement restricted. Large swathes of the world's economy have shut down.  The n…
April Monthly April Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 01, 2020 Rating: 5
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