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Gold and the Dollar are Sold while Stocks March Higher

August 11, 2020
Overview:   A rotation of sorts seems to be unfolding.  The euro posted its second back-to-back loss in over a month. The Canadian dollar, which has been an under-performer among the major currencies for the past six weeks, gained, while most fell.  The Dow Industrials and S&P 500 rose, the high flying NASDAQ fell for the second consecutive se…
Gold and the Dollar are Sold while Stocks March Higher Gold and the Dollar are Sold while Stocks March Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2020 Rating: 5
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Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures

August 10, 2020
With the media playing up the US dollar's negatives, one would think speculators are short the greenback like there is no tomorrow.  Yet a review of the Commitment of Traders report that covers the week through last Tuesday, August 4, shows that this is not really the case.  
Below the speculative positioning of four currency futures is reviewe…
Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures Speculative Positioning in Selected Currency Futures Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2020 Rating: 5
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Monday in August

August 10, 2020
Overview: The new week has begun slowly with Singapore and Tokyo markets closed for national holidays.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 2% last week and edged higher today, led by 1.5%-1.7% rallies in South Korea and Australia.  Hong Kong was a notable exception and eased around 0.6%.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 also advanced 2% last week a…
Monday in August Monday in August Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2020 Rating: 5
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About that Dollar Bounce

August 09, 2020
The US dollar did not recover as much ahead of the jobs as we flagged a week ago, and the technical condition is still stretched.  The price action lends credence to our view that a technical consolidative/corrective phase is at hand. Further near-term dollar recovery looks likely but does not change our longer-term bearish outlook.
Dollar Index: 
About that Dollar Bounce About that Dollar Bounce Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 09, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Ant and the Grasshopper: A Window into Macro Part II

August 08, 2020
Regardless of the dollar's role and function in the world economy and the halls of finance, in the near and intermediate terms, investors and businesses are more concerned with foreign exchange prices.  The greenback has fallen out of favor. Its main supports, like wide interest rate differentials, favorable growth differentials, and political…
The Ant and the Grasshopper: A Window into Macro Part II The Ant and the Grasshopper:  A Window into Macro  Part II Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 08, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Ant and the Grasshopper: A Window into Macro Part I

August 08, 2020
Spurred by a few op-ed pieces and a couple of investment bank "research" notes, the mainstream and social media have been talking about others talking about the dollar losing its reserve status or its larger role in the global economy.  Few appear to really think it is likely in anything that approaches the time horizon of most investors…
The Ant and the Grasshopper: A Window into Macro Part I The Ant and the Grasshopper:  A Window into Macro  Part I Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 08, 2020 Rating: 5
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Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports

August 07, 2020
Overview: Escalating dramas may be behind the position adjustment today ahead of the US jobs data.  The US and China feud expanded beyond Tiktok to WeChat, and efforts to tighten disclosure rules for Chinese companies listed in the US are nearing.  The negotiations between the White House and the Democrats broke down, preventing or at least delayi…
Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 07, 2020 Rating: 5
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Markets Consolidate

August 06, 2020
Overview:  The Australian dollar powered to marginal news highs for the year as the move against the US dollar continued yesterday.  The euro stopped a few hundredths of a cent below the high seen at the end of last week.   However, neither sustained the upside momentum and have come back offered today.   The greenback is narrowly mixed against th…
Markets Consolidate Markets Consolidate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 06, 2020 Rating: 5
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Corrective Pressures in the FX Market Prove Short-Lived

August 05, 2020
Overview:  The drop in US yields to new lows amid paralysis in Washington, except apparently over a lip-syncing app's threat to US national security, sent the dollar back to its lows after a modest recovery in early North American trading yesterday.  The greenback remains under pressure today, falling against most of the world's currencies…
Corrective Pressures in the FX Market Prove Short-Lived Corrective Pressures in the FX Market Prove Short-Lived Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 05, 2020 Rating: 5
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