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The Dollar Jumps Back

March 24, 2023
Overview: The pendulum of market expectations has swung dramatically and now looks for 100 bp cut in the Fed funds target this year. That seems extreme. At the same time, the dollar's downside momentum has stalled, suggesting that the dollar may recover some of the ground lost recently as the interest rate leg was knocked out from beneath it. …
The Dollar Jumps Back The Dollar Jumps Back Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 24, 2023 Rating: 5
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Market Hears Dovish Fed Hike and Sells Dollars

March 23, 2023
Overview:  The dollar remains under pressure following the Federal Reserve's rate hike. The market thinks it heard that the Fed was done hiking, even though Fed Chair Powell held out the possibility that "some additional firming may be necessary."  The Norwegian krone is the strongest of the G10 currencies today, up more than 1%, spu…
Market Hears Dovish Fed Hike and Sells Dollars Market Hears Dovish Fed Hike and Sells Dollars Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 23, 2023 Rating: 5
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Tough Fed Decisions

March 22, 2023
Overview: The market has concluded that the Fed will hike rates today. The US two-year yield has risen from about 3.63% at Monday's lows almost 4.20% yesterday. It needs to rise to 4.35% to recover half of its decline since March 8 but has come back softer today. Meanwhile, the banking crisis continues to ease, and Europe's Stoxx 600 bank …
Tough Fed Decisions Tough Fed Decisions Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 22, 2023 Rating: 5
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Banking Stress Eases

March 21, 2023
Overview: The banking crisis is ebbing. The Bank of England and European Central Bank assured investors that the AT1 bonds are senior to equity claims, and Switzerland is a unique case. Bank share indices in the Europe and the US rose yesterday, even though the shares of First Republic Bank fell by 47% yesterday. The $123-stock at the end of last …
Banking Stress Eases Banking Stress Eases Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 21, 2023 Rating: 5
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Terms of UBS Acquisition Wipes out Additional Tier 1 Capital and Spurs Fresh Concerns Terms of UBS Acquisition Wipes out Additional Tier 1 Capital and Spurs Fresh Concerns Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 20, 2023 Rating: 5
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FOMC and BOE Meet As Investors are Not Persuaded that Efforts to Contain the Financial Crisis are Sufficient FOMC and BOE Meet As Investors are Not Persuaded that Efforts to Contain the Financial Crisis are Sufficient Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 18, 2023 Rating: 5
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Fragile Calm to End the Volatile Week even with the Quadruple Expirations

March 17, 2023
Overview: The support for First Republic Bank shown by a consortium of US banks by shifting $30 bln of deposits is helping break the financial anxiety that has gripped the market for more than a week. The liquidity provisions for Credit Suisse by the Swiss National Bank also are contributing to improved sentiment. The Fed's balance sheet expan…
Fragile Calm to End the Volatile Week even with the Quadruple Expirations Fragile Calm to End the Volatile Week even with the Quadruple Expirations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 17, 2023 Rating: 5
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