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Fear Grips the Capital Markets

October 17, 2025
Overview: The pendulum between fear and greed is swinging toward the former today. The large write-downs at a couple of US regional banks follow high-profile collapses of Tricolor and First Brands. They play on fears of mounting late-cycle stress. US bank reserves have also fallen through a key threshold ($3 trillion) and some fear a repeat of 201…
Fear Grips the Capital Markets Fear Grips the Capital Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 17, 2025 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on the Dollar

October 16, 2025
Most investors don’t have direct exposure to the currency mix that makes up the Dollar Index (DXY), but that doesn’t mean it’s irrelevant. Far from it. DXY offers a useful lens through which to view the broader forces shaping the dollar’s direction. And because it’s an index, it tends to trend more clearly than the individual currencies it compris…
Thoughts on the Dollar Thoughts on the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 16, 2025 Rating: 5
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FX Moves Tentatively, While Equities and Gold Continue to March Higher

October 16, 2025
Overview: The US dollar is mostly a little softer ahead of the start of the North American session. Participants do not seem to have much short-term conviction amid the heightened tensions between the US and China and wary of political developments in France and Japan. Against several pairs, the greenback has frayed its recent ranges but there has…
FX Moves Tentatively, While Equities and Gold Continue to March Higher FX Moves Tentatively, While Equities and Gold Continue to March Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 16, 2025 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Returns Offered While Bonds and Stocks Rally, Gold's Ascent Continues US Dollar Returns Offered While Bonds and Stocks Rally, Gold's Ascent Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2025 Rating: 5
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No Relaxation of US-China Tensions, Japanese Political Challenges, and a Rise in UK Unemployment, Send Ripples Through the Capital Markets

October 14, 2025
Overview: The markets wanted to believe that the President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent were right, China overreacted with the broadening and tightening of export licensing requirements for critical materials and de-escalation would result. But this does not seem to be the case. The risk-off mood has sent stocks tumbling and bonds rallying…
No Relaxation of US-China Tensions, Japanese Political Challenges, and a Rise in UK Unemployment, Send Ripples Through the Capital Markets No Relaxation of US-China Tensions, Japanese Political Challenges, and a Rise in UK Unemployment, Send Ripples Through the Capital Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2025 Rating: 5
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Market Sees "Escalation to De-Escalate"

October 13, 2025
Overview: Neither the US nor China have backed away from the brink approached before the weekend, but many market participants have concluded that this is an "escalation to de-escalate". The foreign exchange market has unwound some of the pre-weekend price action. The dollar-bloc currencies and Norwegian krone, which suffered before the …
Market Sees "Escalation to De-Escalate" Market Sees "Escalation to De-Escalate" Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 13, 2025 Rating: 5
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Week Ahead: Politics Pushes Aside Economics

October 11, 2025
The combination of the policy mix advocated by the woman who is most likely to become the next prime minister of Japan and a series of disappointing German economic data amid a political crisis in France helped lift US dollar. Many trend followers and short-term market participants were caught the wrong way, and the short squeeze accelerated the d…
Week Ahead: Politics Pushes Aside Economics Week Ahead: Politics Pushes Aside Economics Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 11, 2025 Rating: 5
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