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Macro and Prices: Sentiment Swings Between Inflation and Recession

May 14, 2022
(On vacation for the rest of the month.  Going to Portugal.  Commentary will resume on June 1.   Good luck to us all.)The market is a fickle mistress. The major central banks were judged to be behind the inflation curve. Much teeth-gashing, finger-pointing. Federal Reserve Chair Powell was blamed for denying that a 75 bp hike was under considerati…
Macro and Prices: Sentiment Swings Between Inflation and Recession Macro and Prices: Sentiment Swings Between Inflation and Recession Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 14, 2022 Rating: 5
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Sentiment Remains Fragile, and the Euro and Sterling can barely Sustain even Modest Upticks Sentiment Remains Fragile, and the Euro and Sterling can barely Sustain even Modest Upticks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 13, 2022 Rating: 5
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Dollar and Yen Surge

May 12, 2022
Overview: Global equities are bleeding lower. Several large markets in the Asia Pacific region, including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India are off more than 2%. Japan and Australian bourses fell by more than 1.5%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off more than 2% and giving back the gains recorded in the past two sessions plus some. US futures are extending …
Dollar and Yen Surge Dollar and Yen Surge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 12, 2022 Rating: 5
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Greenback Softens Ahead of CPI

May 11, 2022
Overview: It appears that investors have become more concerned about growth prospects and less about inflation in recent days. The US 10-year yield that had flirted with 3.20% at the start of the week is now around 2.93%. It is approaching the 20-day moving average (~2.90%), which it has not closed below in a little more than two months. European …
Greenback Softens Ahead of CPI Greenback Softens Ahead of CPI Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 11, 2022 Rating: 5
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No Rest for the Weary

May 10, 2022
Overview: Risk appetites are improving on the margin. Asia Pacific stocks still fell after the sharp losses on Wall Street on Monday. Still, China, Taiwan and Indian equities traded higher. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a four-day 6.5%+ slide and is up around 1.2% in late European morning turnover. US equity futures are up over 1%. The 10-yea…
No Rest for the Weary No Rest for the Weary Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 10, 2022 Rating: 5
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New Week Same Refrain: Stocks Down, Yields Up, Stronger Greenback

May 09, 2022
Overview: New week, same refrain.  Stocks down, yields up, and the dollar is broadly higher.  The Nikkei and Taiwan fell by more than 2% and South Korea and Australia were off more than 1%.  China's Shanghai and Shenzhen rose, but the CSI 300 fell again.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is off around 1.5% near midday in Europe.  US futures are 1.5%-2.0…
New Week Same Refrain: Stocks Down, Yields Up, Stronger Greenback New Week Same Refrain: Stocks Down, Yields Up, Stronger Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 09, 2022 Rating: 5
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Sterling,Tarred and Feathered, Bears Brunt of the Greenback's Rally

May 08, 2022
The most important development last week was the swaps market lifting the terminal rate of the Fed funds rate toward 3.75% from around 3.25% at the end of April.  The knock-on effect sent the US 10-year yield above 3% and underpinned the greenback.  The Bank of England's 25 bp rate hike, and 1/3 of the MPC wanted a 50 bp hike despite economic …
Sterling,Tarred and Feathered, Bears Brunt of the Greenback's Rally Sterling,Tarred and Feathered, Bears Brunt of the Greenback's Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 08, 2022 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead: US CPI and PPI Set to Soften

May 07, 2022
The Fed's 50 bp rate hike is behind us.  Another 50 bp hike is expected next month. The April employment report will do little to calm the anxiety about the "too tight" labor market.  The decline in the participation rate was disappointing and this coupled with decline in Q1 productivity raies questions about the economy's non-in…
The Week Ahead: US CPI and PPI Set to Soften The Week Ahead: US CPI and PPI Set to Soften Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 07, 2022 Rating: 5
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