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Busy Week Ahead, but ECB Meeting Stands Out

August 31, 2014
The week ahead is packed with events and data. The monthly cycle of purchasing managers surveys  and the US jobs report are featured. There are also central bank meetings in six high-income countries and three emerging markets.   Given the recent geopolitical development, in Ukraine, as well ISIS, will give the NATO meeting extra significance.  
At…
Busy Week Ahead, but ECB Meeting Stands Out Busy Week Ahead, but ECB Meeting Stands Out Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 31, 2014 Rating: 5
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A Few Brief Comments on the Technical Condition of the Dollar

August 30, 2014
Driven by the real and anticipated divergence in economic performance and trajectory of monetary policy, the long anticipated US dollar recovery has begun. As is evident in the positioning of the futures market, and confirmed by anecdotal evidence, speculative participants have amassed a significant large US dollar position.    Broader measures of…
A Few Brief Comments on the Technical Condition of the Dollar A Few Brief Comments on the Technical Condition of the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Why Do We Cook?

August 30, 2014
This Cool Video discusses the uniquely human activity of cooking/preparing food.  It comes from the PBS series It is Okay to Be Smart.   It is about six minutes long, but covers complex biological and social ideas in an entertaining way.  There is something else here too besides the interesting content.  The video  has something to say about causa…
Cool Video: Why Do We Cook? Cool Video:  Why Do We Cook? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 30, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: The Euro and Commodity Prices

August 29, 2014
This Great Graphic, constructed on Bloomberg, shows the CRB Index (white line) and the euro (yellow line) over the past six month.  It is not meant to imply a causal relationship; as in weaker commodity prices cause the euro to fall.  
What we are interested in here is the news today that while the preliminary August euro area headline inflation ti…
Great Graphic: The Euro and Commodity Prices Great Graphic:  The Euro and Commodity Prices Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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Month-end Consolidation Featured Ahead of Next Week's Key Events

August 29, 2014
The US dollar is consolidating, largely within yesterday's ranges.  Month-end and quarter-end hedge and portfolio adjustments are notoriously difficult to predict.  There is also large option expires today.  Given the EU Summit this weekend, a holiday in the US on Monday, and no fewer than five central bank meetings among the high-income count…
Month-end Consolidation Featured Ahead of Next Week's Key Events Month-end Consolidation Featured  Ahead of Next Week's Key Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 29, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Periphery Runs C/A Surplus, but Problems Remain

August 28, 2014
This Great Graphic was tweeted by Mark Yusko.  He got from Credit Suisse Research, who drew on Thomson Reuters data.  It shows the current account balance of the four main European peripheral countries on a 12-month rolling basis over the last several years.

Before the crisis, they were all running current account deficits.  Now there are all exper…
Great Graphic: Periphery Runs C/A Surplus, but Problems Remain Great Graphic:  Periphery Runs C/A Surplus, but Problems Remain Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

August 28, 2014
(from my colleague Ilan Solot)

1) Polls for Brazil’s presidential elections showed that Marina is ahead of Dilma in the second round 2) Israel’s central bank surprised markets with a cut 3) The situation on the ground in Ukraine has escalated, again 4) The easing cycle has ended in Hungary 5) Turkey’s central bank stopped cutting its repo rate – …
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Europe Drives Capital Markets

August 28, 2014
There is one overriding driving force in the capital markets today, and it is Europe.  The data, preliminary inflation, M3, and sentiment surveys are all read with an eye toward next week's ECB meeting.  In addition, Russian troops, tanks and weapons appear to be entering Ukraine under the guise of the insurgence.  This is like a rolling start…
Europe Drives Capital Markets Europe Drives Capital Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 28, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Where European Banks are Lending

August 27, 2014
The ECB reports money supply and new lending figures tomorrow.  The central bank has acknowledged that there are preliminary signs that credit extension to households and businesses have begun improving.  The ECB is not satisfied, and next month, the Targeted Long Term Repo facility will be initiated.  The ostensible goal is to increase lending to…
Great Graphic: Where European Banks are Lending Great Graphic:  Where European Banks are Lending Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Underemployment

August 27, 2014
In her rather wide ranging discussion of the labor market at Jackson Hole, Fed chief Janet Yellen was open to the possibility that some structural forces were at work.  She was also cognizant that the modern economy simply does not need as many full time workers as it has in the past.  Nevertheless, Yellen concluded, however, that there was still …
Great Graphic: Underemployment Great Graphic:  Underemployment Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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Dollar Slips, while Bond Market Rally Continues Dollar Slips, while Bond Market Rally Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 27, 2014 Rating: 5
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