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One Last Thing before the Week is Over

April 03, 2015
The US employment report stands between us and the weekend. With parts of Asia and nearly all of Europe closed, participation is obviously considerably lighter than normal. This coupled with significant positioning can make for dramatic moves.  
At the same time, there is an asymmetrical risk. A robust report does not change the status quo.  The re…
One Last Thing before the Week is Over One Last Thing before the Week is Over Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 03, 2015 Rating: 5
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Mr Crude Meets Mr Minsky Round Two

April 02, 2015
At the end of last year, we argued that the Minsky moment had come to oil.  That after years of high prices and ideas that oil prices could only go up, there was extensive leveraging in the energy sector broadly conceived, that would have to be unwind.  We anticipated that this was bigger than just the $90 bln of high yield debt issued by shale pr…
Mr Crude Meets Mr Minsky Round Two Mr Crude Meets Mr Minsky Round Two Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

April 02, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr Win Thin and Ilan Solot)


1) China churns out more measures 2) The Bank of Israel increased the level of FX reserves that it considers adequate 3) Nigeria has a new president 4) Chile is joining Mexico in setting a hawkish tone 5) Brazil’s president Rousseff’s popularity fell off a cliff 6) Thailand’s military junta ended ma…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Sets Back After Testing Top of Range

April 02, 2015
The US dollar is mostly lower as liquidity thins, and soft economic data kept the bulls penned.  The soft ADP estimate and weaker than expected manufacturing ISM offset the heightened rhetoric about Greece's 460 mln euro payment due to the IMF next week.  
The ADP estimate need not mean a poor national figure.  Even with a small upward revision…
Dollar Sets Back After Testing Top of Range Dollar Sets Back After Testing Top of Range Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Six Mostly Overlooked Points about the Currency Reserve Data

April 01, 2015
At the end of each quarter, the IMF reports on currency reserve holdings by central banks for the preceding quarter.What investors are most interested in is the currency allocation of those reserves.  
Not all central banks report the allocation of their reserves.China, the world's largest holder of reserves, is believed not to report the alloc…
Six Mostly Overlooked Points about the Currency Reserve Data Six Mostly Overlooked Points about the Currency Reserve Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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European Economic Thaw Continues, but Dollar Remains Firm

April 01, 2015
The US dollar remains bid as liquidity begins to slip away from the foreign exchange market, not to return until April 7.  The inability of the euro, and especially sterling to trade higher despite favorable economic news is noteworthy.  At the same time, the Nikkei's fall (0.9%) after a similar slide in the S&P 500 yesterday (and a lower …
European Economic Thaw Continues, but Dollar Remains Firm European Economic Thaw Continues, but Dollar Remains Firm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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