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Delta Variant Saps Risk Taking Appetites, Sending the Greenback Higher even as Rates Fall Delta Variant Saps Risk Taking Appetites, Sending the Greenback Higher even as Rates Fall Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 19, 2021 Rating: 5
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Rates and Currencies Act like They are From Different Planets

July 18, 2021
Stronger than expected US inflation and retail sales, and counter-intuitively Treasury yields softened, and the dollar strengthened.  The 10-year yield slipped four basis points on the week to 1.32%.  The yield has risen in three of the past 15 weeks.  It is tough to argue that it is a fluke.  While it is holding above the 200-day moving average (…
Rates and Currencies Act like They are From Different Planets Rates and Currencies Act like They are From Different Planets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 18, 2021 Rating: 5
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ECB: Aligning Forward Guidance with New Inflation Target Framing

July 17, 2021
After the June CPI and PPI surge, the Federal Reserve does not appear to have changed its tune.  The price pressures are temporary, and the labor market is still "a ways off" from the "significant further progress" necessary to reduce the bond purchases.  Federal Reserve Chair Powell warned in his semi-annual testimony to Congr…
ECB: Aligning Forward Guidance with New Inflation Target Framing ECB:  Aligning Forward Guidance with New Inflation Target Framing Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 17, 2021 Rating: 5
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BOJ Tweaks Forecasts

July 16, 2021
Overview: The markets head into the weekend with little fanfare.  Most large equity markets in the Asia Pacific region slipped earlier today. Hong Kong, which will be exempt from the need to secure mainland's cybersecurity approval for foreign IPOs, and Australia were notable exceptions. European bourses are edging higher, while US futures are…
BOJ Tweaks Forecasts BOJ Tweaks Forecasts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 16, 2021 Rating: 5
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Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don't Stop the Bond Market Rally

July 15, 2021
Overview: Strong inflation prints this week have not prevented the long-term US interest rates from tumbling.  The 10-year yield is about 10 bp lower than where it closed on Tuesday after the lackluster 30-year auction.  The 30-year yield itself is 11 bp lower.   Fed Chair Powell did not break new ground yesterday and insisted that the bar of &quo…
Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don't Stop the Bond Market Rally Strong Gains in US CPI and PPI Don't Stop the Bond Market Rally Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 15, 2021 Rating: 5
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RBNZ Moves Ahead of the Queue, Will the Bank of Canada Maintain its Place?

July 14, 2021
Overview: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand jumped to the front of the queue of central banks adjusting monetary policy by announcing the end of its long-term asset purchases.   New Zealand's s 10-year benchmark yield jumped seven basis points, and the Kiwi is up almost 1%, to lead the move against the greenback today.  Sterling is up around a q…
RBNZ Moves Ahead of the Queue, Will the Bank of Canada Maintain its Place? RBNZ Moves Ahead of the Queue, Will the Bank of Canada Maintain its Place? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 14, 2021 Rating: 5
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Deja Vu All Over Again

July 13, 2021
The demise of America is an often-told tale.   When Bitcoin was closer to $60k, some keen observers claimed it reflected the decline of the dollar and the US economy.  A popular meme is to compare America to the Roman Empire and its famous collapse.  The American political scientist Graham Allison popularized the idea of a "Thucydides trap&qu…
Deja Vu All Over Again Deja Vu All Over Again Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 13, 2021 Rating: 5
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Headline US CPI may Decline for the First Time in a Year

July 13, 2021
Overview: New record highs in the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ coupled with China allowing Tencent to acquire a search engine helped lift Asia Pacific equities.  It is the first back-to-back by MSCI's regional index for more than two weeks.  Australia's market was a notable exception.  The lockdown in Sydney is weighed on new confidence measu…
Headline US CPI may Decline for the First Time in a Year Headline US CPI may Decline for the First Time in a Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 13, 2021 Rating: 5
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