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Deja Vu All Over Again

July 13, 2021
The demise of America is an often-told tale.   When Bitcoin was closer to $60k, some keen observers claimed it reflected the decline of the dollar and the US economy.  A popular meme is to compare America to the Roman Empire and its famous collapse.  The American political scientist Graham Allison popularized the idea of a "Thucydides trap&qu…
Deja Vu All Over Again Deja Vu All Over Again Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 13, 2021 Rating: 5
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Headline US CPI may Decline for the First Time in a Year

July 13, 2021
Overview: New record highs in the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ coupled with China allowing Tencent to acquire a search engine helped lift Asia Pacific equities.  It is the first back-to-back by MSCI's regional index for more than two weeks.  Australia's market was a notable exception.  The lockdown in Sydney is weighed on new confidence measu…
Headline US CPI may Decline for the First Time in a Year Headline US CPI may Decline for the First Time in a Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 13, 2021 Rating: 5
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Markets Adrift ahead of Key Events

July 12, 2021
Overview:  The new week has begun quietly.  The dollar is drifting a little higher against most major currencies, with the Scandis and dollar-bloc currencies the heaviest.  The yen and Swiss franc's resilience seen last week is carrying over.  Most liquid and freely accessible emerging market currencies are lower, and the JP Morgan EM currency…
Markets Adrift ahead of Key Events Markets Adrift ahead of Key Events Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 12, 2021 Rating: 5
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Can the Dollar and Bonds Rally Together for Long?

July 11, 2021
After reversing lower despite a robust jobs report on July 2, the greenback saw limited follow-through selling at the start of last week and instead recovered fully.  The major currencies that bore the brunt of the dollar's gain were those currencies that are understood to be ahead of the Fed in normalizing policy.  The Norwegian krone and dol…
Can the Dollar and Bonds Rally Together for Long? Can the Dollar and Bonds Rally Together for Long? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 11, 2021 Rating: 5
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Measuring Inflation and the Week Ahead

July 10, 2021
There is quite an unusual price context for new week's economic events, which include June US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with China's Q2 GDP, and the meetings for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Japan. In addition, the US Treasury will sell $120 bln in coupons while the US earne…
Measuring Inflation and the Week Ahead Measuring Inflation and the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 10, 2021 Rating: 5
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PBOC Cuts Reserve Requirements after Inflation Measures Ease

July 09, 2021
Overview:  The capital markets are winding down what has been a challenging week that has seen equity markets slide and the dollar and bonds rally.  The MSCI Asia Pacific fell for the fourth consecutive session, but the more interesting story may be the intrasession recovery that could set the stage for a better performance next week.   The Nikkei…
PBOC Cuts Reserve Requirements after Inflation Measures Ease PBOC Cuts Reserve Requirements after Inflation Measures Ease Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 09, 2021 Rating: 5
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Capital Markets Remain Unhinged

July 08, 2021
Overview: The dramatic move in the capital markets continues.  The US dollar is soaring as yields and equities slide.  The US 10-year yield has fallen below 1.30 to 1.26%  European benchmark yields are 1-4 bp lower, while Australia and New Zealand have seen a 7-9 bp drop today.  Signals that the PBOC may provide more monetary support helped drive …
Capital Markets Remain Unhinged Capital Markets Remain Unhinged Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 08, 2021 Rating: 5
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Dollar Stabilizes at Elevated Levels After Surging Yesterday

July 07, 2021
Overview:  The dollar has steadied after surging yesterday and has so far retained the lion's share of its gains, though it remains lower against most major currencies today.  The dollar-bloc and Norwegian krone are the best performers while the yen is underperforming.  The freely accessible emerging market currencies, including the Russian ro…
Dollar Stabilizes at Elevated Levels After Surging Yesterday Dollar Stabilizes at Elevated Levels After Surging Yesterday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 07, 2021 Rating: 5
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