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Reflections on Counter-Value Macro

February 13, 2021
It may be a bit morbid, but consider the targeting of missiles for a moment.  One broad strategy is called counter-value; the value, of course, is people.  This is the sanitized way that targeting urban centers is discussed.  The alternative is counter-force, the force being the enemy's missiles.  Counter-force sounds like a more humane target…
Reflections on Counter-Value Macro Reflections on Counter-Value Macro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 13, 2021 Rating: 5
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Animal Spirits Start the Weekend Early

February 12, 2021
Overview:  Profit-taking weighs on equity markets, and the dollar is trading higher ahead of the weekend.  Most Asia Pacific markets are still closed for the holiday, but Victoria's snap lockdown dragged Australian shares lower.  Japan and Indian markets were narrowly mixed, but the selling pressure is clearer in Europe, where the Dow Jones St…
Animal Spirits Start the Weekend Early Animal Spirits Start the Weekend Early Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 12, 2021 Rating: 5
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Oil Set to Snap 8-day Advance while Consolidative Tone Emerges in FX

February 11, 2021
Overview: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unable to sustain the gap higher opening to new record levels and reversed lower and fell to new three-lows.  The settlements were just inside Tuesday ranges, though the Dow Industrials set a record close. Yet, there was spillover to equity trading in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today.  Most of the …
Oil Set to Snap 8-day Advance while Consolidative Tone Emerges in FX Oil Set to Snap 8-day Advance while Consolidative Tone Emerges in FX Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 11, 2021 Rating: 5
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China's Expansion Does not Prevent Deflation

February 10, 2021
Overview:  Despite a soft close in US indices yesterday, global shares are on the march again today.  Led by China and Hong Kong, most large markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced today.  Officials gave approval for a new game from Tencent, which helped lift the Hang Seng.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 slipped fractionally yesterday but h…
China's Expansion Does not Prevent Deflation  China's Expansion Does not Prevent Deflation Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 10, 2021 Rating: 5
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Diamonds Don't Just have to be a Girl's Best Friend

February 09, 2021
I fully get that many savers are looking for an alternative to stocks and bonds, which seem terribly over-valued. There are almost $16 trillion of negative-yielding bonds in the world.  Despite the rise in the US 10-year bond, the yield is below the current rate of inflation.  What appears to be a mostly liquidity-driven rally has lifted equity va…
Diamonds Don't Just have to be a Girl's Best Friend Diamonds Don't Just have to be a Girl's Best Friend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 09, 2021 Rating: 5
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Players are Not Buying Everything Today

February 09, 2021
Overview:  The rally of US benchmarks to new record highs helped lift most Asia Pacific markets today, but the bulls are pausing in Europe, and there has been little follow-through buying of US shares.  Australia, South Korea, and Indonesia did not participate in today's regional advance led by a 2% rally in China's main indices. Most Euro…
Players are Not Buying Everything Today Players are Not Buying Everything Today Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 09, 2021 Rating: 5
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Limited Follow-Through Dollar Selling to Start the Week

February 08, 2021
Overview: The US dollar has drifted higher against the major currencies and most of the freely accessible emerging market currencies, paring the losses seen before the weekend in response to the disappointing employment report. Easing pressure from the pandemic as the surge in cases after the holidays may also be encouraging risk-taking to extend …
Limited Follow-Through Dollar Selling to Start the Week Limited Follow-Through Dollar Selling to Start the Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 08, 2021 Rating: 5
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A Correction within a Correction

February 07, 2021
The disappointing US jobs data may mark the end of the first phase of the dollar's recovery.  It may be like the US phase 1 deal from China. Many wonder if there will be another phase. We suspect that the employment data is not a game-changer. On the one hand, the divergence of economic activity between the US, Europe, and Japan, on the other,…
A Correction within a Correction A Correction within a Correction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 07, 2021 Rating: 5
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Macro for the Week Ahead and How Oil is Abetting Inflation Expectations

February 06, 2021
Sometimes officials call for the foreign exchange market to reflect fundamentals as if they can do anything but.  As businesses and investors, we are more interested in which fundamentals are driving prices than some academic debate over what fundamental considerations ought participants emphasize.  Data from Q4 may be dated and may not move anyon…
Macro for the Week Ahead and How Oil is Abetting Inflation Expectations Macro for the Week Ahead and How Oil is Abetting Inflation Expectations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 06, 2021 Rating: 5
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