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A Correction within a Correction

February 07, 2021
The disappointing US jobs data may mark the end of the first phase of the dollar's recovery.  It may be like the US phase 1 deal from China. Many wonder if there will be another phase. We suspect that the employment data is not a game-changer. On the one hand, the divergence of economic activity between the US, Europe, and Japan, on the other,…
A Correction within a Correction A Correction within a Correction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 07, 2021 Rating: 5
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Macro for the Week Ahead and How Oil is Abetting Inflation Expectations

February 06, 2021
Sometimes officials call for the foreign exchange market to reflect fundamentals as if they can do anything but.  As businesses and investors, we are more interested in which fundamentals are driving prices than some academic debate over what fundamental considerations ought participants emphasize.  Data from Q4 may be dated and may not move anyon…
Macro for the Week Ahead and How Oil is Abetting Inflation Expectations Macro for the Week Ahead and How Oil is Abetting Inflation Expectations Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 06, 2021 Rating: 5
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Position Squaring Weighs on the Dollar Ahead of the Jobs Report

February 05, 2021
Overview:  While equities continue to march higher, the dollar is softer amid position squaring ahead of the US jobs data.  Gold has stabilized after yesterday's shellacking.  Estimates for US nonfarm payrolls appear to have been creeping higher, encouraged by the ADP, PMI, and weekly initial jobless claims.  A robust report today could bolste…
Position Squaring Weighs on the Dollar Ahead of the Jobs Report Position Squaring Weighs on the Dollar Ahead of the Jobs Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 05, 2021 Rating: 5
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Negative Rates and the Bank of England: Having Your Cake and Eating it Too

February 04, 2021
Overview:  The euro has been sold through $1.20 for the first time since December 1 and has now given back roughly half of the gains scored from the US election (~$1.16) to the early January high (~$.1.2350).  More broadly, the greenback is bid against most of the major currencies, with the Australian dollar more resilient after reported record ir…
Negative Rates and the Bank of England: Having Your Cake and Eating it Too Negative Rates and the Bank of England: Having Your Cake and Eating it Too Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 04, 2021 Rating: 5
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The Greenback Remains Resilient as the Bulls Drive Equities Higher

February 03, 2021
Overview: Equities have charged higher, and the greenback is mostly firmer.  News that Draghi may become Italy's next Prime Minister has boosted Italian bonds.  The PBOC unexpectedly drained liquidity, and this may have deterred buying of Chinese stocks, a notable exception in the regional rally.  It stopped last week's four-day slide with…
The Greenback Remains Resilient as the Bulls Drive Equities Higher The Greenback Remains Resilient as the Bulls Drive Equities Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2021 Rating: 5
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Animal Spirits Return and the Euro Probes Two-Month Lows

February 02, 2021
Overview: The recovery from last week's equity slide continues today.  In Asia Pacific region, Taiwan and India led with more than 2% gains.  Stepped fiscal efforts, the establishment of a bad bank, and privatization efforts are bolstering Indian shares.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped higher today and has recouped around half what it…
Animal Spirits Return and the Euro Probes Two-Month Lows Animal Spirits Return and the Euro Probes Two-Month Lows Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2021 Rating: 5
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February Monthly

February 01, 2021
Most of the time, investors are focused on two V’s: value and volatility. However,  two other V's will continue to dominate the month ahead for the investment climate: virus and vaccine. At the end of January, it seemed like many high-income countries had begun seeing leveling-off after the holiday-inspired surge. Economic-cramping restriction…
February Monthly February Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2021 Rating: 5
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Markets Snap Back

February 01, 2021
Overview: Global equities are snapping back today, while the greenback retained the strength seen last week that was attributed to safe-haven flows.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day decline led by Hong Kong, South Korea, India, and Indonesia.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx is up around 1.1% after losing a little more than 3% last wee…
Markets Snap Back Markets Snap Back Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2021 Rating: 5
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