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Sterling and Yuan Resilience, While Rate Differentials Aid Dollar?

October 18, 2020
The US dollar rose against nearly all the major currencies last week.  The yen was the sole exception.  Risk appetites were shaken by repeated cycles of hope and disappointment over the outlook for additional fiscal support in the US and Europe's brinkmanship in the UK-EU trade talks.  For the most part, the greenback did not break above key c…
Sterling and Yuan Resilience, While Rate Differentials Aid Dollar? Sterling and Yuan Resilience, While Rate Differentials Aid Dollar? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 18, 2020 Rating: 5
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Macro Drivers

October 17, 2020
Macro memes are likely to eclipse the high-frequency economic data in the coming days.  The preliminary PMIs are among the first survey data for the new month, and October's are on tap next week.  The key reason that there may be downside risks in the US and Europe, especially in services, is the virus's resurgence and new restrictions.  A…
Macro Drivers Macro Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 17, 2020 Rating: 5
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Deja Vu All Over Again

October 16, 2020
Overview:  It was like deja vu all over again.  First, the market reacted immodestly to headlines indicating there was little chance of pre-election fiscal stimulus in the US.  It was hardly new news.  Then the market seemed to react with surprise that there was no last-minute breakthrough in the UK-EU trade negotiations.  Prime Minister Johnson c…
Deja Vu All Over Again Deja Vu All Over Again Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 16, 2020 Rating: 5
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Markets Shake and Dollar Goes Bid

October 15, 2020
Overview:  A combination of the surging virus, threatening the slow recovery that was already losing momentum, the lack of new stimulus in the US, and market positioning is seeing risk unwind in a big way today.  Equities are selling off.  Led by a 2% drop in Hong Kong, Asia Pacific equities tumbled, with the exception of Australia, where signals …
Markets Shake and Dollar Goes Bid Markets Shake and Dollar Goes Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2020 Rating: 5
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UK Blinks on Threat to Walk Away on Eve of EU Summit

October 14, 2020
Overview: Turn around Tuesday saw the dollar bounce, particularly against the Australian dollar and European currencies, among the majors.  Sterling pared earlier losses on reports that the UK would not walk away from the talks just yet, while the euro remains on its back foot. Emerging market currencies are mixed, leaving the JP Morgan Emerging M…
UK Blinks on Threat to Walk Away on Eve of EU Summit UK Blinks on Threat to Walk Away on Eve of EU Summit Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2020 Rating: 5
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Markets Look for Fresh Incentives

October 13, 2020
Overview:  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped higher for the third consecutive session and continued to advance.  The benchmarks reached their best level since early September.  Hong Kong markets were closed due to a storm, but the MSCI Asia Pacific gained for the seventh consecutive session. Most markets were higher, though Taiwan and South Korea …
Markets Look for Fresh Incentives Markets Look for Fresh Incentives Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 13, 2020 Rating: 5
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Yuan in Spotlight in Consolidative Session

October 12, 2020
Overview:  Led by 2-3% gains in Hong Kong and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the sixth consecutive session is pressing against the high for the year.  European stocks are firmer, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up around 0.5% near midday, and shares are also trading firmer.  The strong close before the weekend warns of the risk of a ga…
Yuan in Spotlight in Consolidative Session Yuan in Spotlight in Consolidative Session Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 12, 2020 Rating: 5
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Dollar Drop Continues, but be Careful of a Third Gap Higher in the S&P 500

October 11, 2020
The US dollar fell against most of the world's currencies last week and looks poised to move lower in days ahead.  When the presidential tweets seemed to dash lingering hope for more fiscal support on October 6, the dollar bounced, and stocks slumped.  Despite the technical signals, follow-through dollar buying was minimal, and the equity mark…
Dollar Drop Continues, but be Careful of a Third Gap Higher in the S&P 500 Dollar Drop Continues, but be Careful of a Third Gap Higher in the S&P 500 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 11, 2020 Rating: 5
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Macro: Tracking the Loss of Momentum

October 10, 2020
The two axis around which risk appetites gravitated for the past six months is in full force next week.  The first is Covid-19 itself.  Many countries are experiencing a new intensification of the virus spread, including wide swathes of Europe and more than half the US states.  New social distancing rules are being (re-)imposed, which cannot have …
Macro: Tracking the Loss of Momentum Macro:  Tracking the Loss of Momentum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 10, 2020 Rating: 5
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