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Macro: Inflation and Policy

August 22, 2020
August is winding down. The market-moving data is passed.  Most of the high-income countries, with the notable exception of the UK, reported disappointing economic data in recent days. US data was decidedly mixed. On one hand, August manufacturing surveys from the NY and Philadelphia Fed showed a cooling off of activity, there was an unexpected in…
Macro: Inflation and Policy Macro: Inflation and Policy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 22, 2020 Rating: 5
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PMIs Shake Investor Confidence

August 21, 2020
Overview: The second disappointing Fed manufacturing survey report and an unexpected rise in weekly jobless claims helped reverse the disappointment over the FOMC minutes.  Bonds and stocks rallied--not on good macroeconomic news, but the opposite, which underscores the likelihood of more support for longer. News that Pfizer's vaccine may be r…
PMIs Shake Investor Confidence PMIs Shake Investor Confidence Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 21, 2020 Rating: 5
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FOMC Minutes Spur Profit-Taking

August 20, 2020
Overview: The FOMC minutes depicted a Federal Reserve that appeared to be not quite ready to take fresh initiatives, whether it is yield curve control or changing the composition or quantities of its bond purchases.  This unleashed profit-taking on some of the large moves in equities, the dollar, and gold. The move has carried into today.  Most bo…
FOMC Minutes Spur Profit-Taking FOMC Minutes Spur Profit-Taking Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 20, 2020 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: TD Ameritrade with Ben Lichtenstein

August 19, 2020
With the dollar continuing to trend lower, it was time to check again with Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade.  It was a privilege to join him today to discuss the drivers. I sketched out my views that the greenback's two legs, growth and interest rate differentials have been knocked from under it. 
There is a glimmer of hope in some quarters th…
Cool Video: TD Ameritrade with Ben Lichtenstein Cool Video:  TD Ameritrade with Ben Lichtenstein Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 19, 2020 Rating: 5
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US Equities Outperform but Does Little for the Heavy Greenback

August 19, 2020
Overview:  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ set new all-time highs yesterday, but the continued outperformance of US equities have failed to lend the dollar much support.  It was sold to new lows for the year yesterday against the euro, sterling, the Swedish krona, and the Australian dollar.  Asia Pacific equities were mixed.  China, Taiwan, and Hong Ko…
US Equities Outperform but Does Little for the Heavy Greenback US Equities Outperform but Does Little for the Heavy Greenback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 19, 2020 Rating: 5
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Canada Shrugs Off Loss of Morneau and Gold Reclaims $2000 Threshold

August 18, 2020
Overview:   The NASDAQ rallied 1% yesterday to record highs as the Dow Industrials struggled, and the S&P 500 was able to eke out a small gain.  The coattails were short, and the strength of the yen may have contributed to a 0.2% loss of the Nikkei.  Still, its 6.2% advance this month is the best among the G10.  Chinese equities posted small g…
Canada Shrugs Off Loss of Morneau and Gold Reclaims $2000 Threshold Canada Shrugs Off Loss of Morneau and Gold Reclaims $2000 Threshold Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 18, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Dollar Softens to Start the New Week

August 17, 2020
Overview:  The capital markets are looking for direction.  Asia Pacific equity markets were mixed, with gains in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan countering losses in Japan, South Korea, and Australia.  European and US shares are trading slightly firmer.  Benchmark bond yields are mostly 1-2 basis points lower in Europe, and the US 10-year yield is of…
The Dollar Softens to Start the New Week The Dollar Softens to Start the New Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 17, 2020 Rating: 5
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Will Sideways Movement Alleviate the Overextended Greenback?

August 16, 2020
Gold sold off, and US yields rose as we anticipated, but this did little for the greenback, which fell against all the majors but the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar.   Although the US dollar fell to new six-month lows against the Canadian dollar and rose to three-week highs against the yen, it remained mostly range-bound.  The sideways moveme…
Will Sideways Movement Alleviate the Overextended Greenback? Will Sideways Movement Alleviate the Overextended Greenback? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 16, 2020 Rating: 5
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August Survey Data and Beyond

August 15, 2020
Economists are often lampooned because of their inability to forecast changes in the business cycle.  But the pandemic helped them overcome the challenge this time. A record contraction in Q2 was anticipated before in March.  Similarly, economists generally expected the recovery after the March-April body blow.  However, after an initial surge, so…
August Survey Data and Beyond August Survey Data and Beyond Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 15, 2020 Rating: 5
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