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Fed Moves Back to Center Stage as Transmission Mechanism is Challenged

June 06, 2020
The Federal Reserve moves to center stage next week.  Outside of the US and Chinese inflation measures, it looks to be a relatively light week in terms of high-frequency economic data. Investors are still ruminating over the surprising jobs report (gain of 2.5 mln jobs vs. forecasts for 7.5 mln loss).  Yes, there were classification problems, and …
Fed Moves Back to Center Stage as Transmission Mechanism is Challenged Fed Moves Back to Center Stage as Transmission Mechanism is Challenged Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 06, 2020 Rating: 5
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Greenback Remains Soft Ahead of Employment Report, but Reversal Possible

June 05, 2020
Overview: The modest loss in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ yesterday did not signal the end of the bull run.  All the markets in the Asia Pacific region rallied, with the Hang Seng among the strongest with a 1.6% advance that brought the week's gain to around 7.8%.  South Korea's Kospi was not far behind with a weekly gain of 7.5%.  In the pa…
Greenback Remains Soft Ahead of Employment Report, but Reversal Possible Greenback Remains Soft Ahead of Employment Report, but Reversal Possible Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 05, 2020 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: The Liquidity Hypothesis

June 04, 2020
Jackie Pang from Meigu TV called and wanted to talk about the seeming disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.   In this nearly 4.5 minute clip that she posted here, she gave me plenty of time to explain what I make of it. 
At the beginning of the year, as the S&P 500 was making new record highs, many observers wondered about the connect…
Cool Video: The Liquidity Hypothesis Cool Video: The Liquidity Hypothesis Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2020 Rating: 5
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Risk Taking Pauses Ahead of the ECB

June 04, 2020
Overview: After several days of aggressive risk-taking, investors are pausing ahead of the ECB meeting.  Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though China was mixed, and Indian shares slipped.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day advance, and US shares are trading with a heavier bias. The S&P 500 gapped h…
Risk Taking Pauses Ahead of the ECB Risk Taking Pauses Ahead of the ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2020 Rating: 5
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Dollar is Sold and ROW is bought

June 03, 2020
Overview: Two recent trends continue.  Equities are moving higher, and the dollar remains heavy.  Equity markets in the Asia Pacific region rose at least one percent, and South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia rallied 2-3%.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up more than 1% for the third consecutive session.  US shares are trading higher and are p…
Dollar is Sold and ROW is bought Dollar is Sold and ROW is bought Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2020 Rating: 5
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Four No's

June 02, 2020
Sometimes it is easier to have a sense of what will not happen, rather than a view of what will happen. 
No Negative Rates in the US:  Nearly every Federal Reserve official has argued against the deployment of negative interest rates in the US.  It is also not completely clear that the same Congressional authorization to allow the Fed to pay intere…
Four No's Four No's Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2020 Rating: 5
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Greenback's Slide Continues

June 02, 2020
Overview: Liquidity trumps everything else.  US equities shrugged off the national guard being called into action in nearly a third of US states, and the S&P 500 closed yesterday at nearly three-month highs. Asia Pacific markets followed suit.  Most markets in the region rose by more than 1%. The notable exceptions were Australia and China, wh…
Greenback's Slide Continues Greenback's Slide Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2020 Rating: 5
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June Monthly

June 01, 2020
The investment climate in June will be shaped by forces that emerged in May.  Many countries began relaxing lockdowns and various activity-based alternative data, like traffic pattern, Open Table Reservations showed improvement on the margins.  Sentiment surveys, while mostly still depressed, were better than April readings.  The long slog back ha…
June Monthly June Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2020 Rating: 5
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US Dollar Losses are Extended, but Momentum Stalls in the European Morning

June 01, 2020
Overview:  US stocks extended their gains ahead of the weekend after President Trump shied away from specific actions against China-Hong Kong, and today Hong Kong shares recovered smartly from last week's 3.6% slide. The Hang Seng rose 3.3% today, and the Shanghai Composite gained over 2%.  All the markets in the region advanced.  Europe's…
US Dollar Losses are Extended, but Momentum Stalls in the European Morning US Dollar Losses are Extended, but Momentum Stalls in the European Morning Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2020 Rating: 5
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