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Monday Blues

March 30, 2020
Overview: Risk appetites remain in check as the spread of the coronavirus is leading to more and longer shutdowns.  Asia Pacific equities fell with Australia, the notable exception.  Its benchmark rallied a record 7%, encouraged by additional stimulus measures.  Led by financials, following new that the ECB is requesting banks hold off dividend pa…
Monday Blues Monday Blues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 30, 2020 Rating: 5
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Technicals Turn Against the Dollar

March 29, 2020
The dollar rallied strongly from March 9 through March 20 or the start of last week on March 23.  It has subsequently sold off and done so in dramatic fashion.  It is not clear the trigger of the stunning reversal.  Some observers attribute it to the Fed's currency swap lines, which were offered daily (seven-day operations) to a handful of lar…
Technicals Turn Against the Dollar Technicals Turn Against the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 29, 2020 Rating: 5
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The Lay of the Land

March 28, 2020
The markets are an incredible aggregator of information.  The corona crisis has denied grist to the mill.  With so many unknowns, it is as if investors latched on to the US fiscal debate.  A camel, it is said, is a horse made in committee, and so too with the laborious legislative process of the American republic.
When everything is said and done, …
The Lay of the Land The Lay of the Land Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 28, 2020 Rating: 5
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Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend

March 27, 2020
Overview:  Officials appear to have persuaded investors that they have put into place measures that will cushion the economic blow and ensure that the financial system continues to function.  After seemingly goading officials into action, investors are choosing not to resist. Moreover, there is a recognition that many programs are scalable.  Risk …
Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend Nervousness Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 27, 2020 Rating: 5
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Rumor Bought, Fact Sold

March 26, 2020
Overview: Speculation that the US Senate would pass the large stimulus bill worth around 10% of US GDP is thought to have fueled a bounce in equities in recent days. The bill was approved and will now go to the House, where a vote is expected tomorrow. If the rumor was bought, the fact has been sold.  The first to crack was the Asia Pacific region…
Rumor Bought, Fact Sold Rumor Bought, Fact Sold Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 26, 2020 Rating: 5
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Relief, but...

March 25, 2020
Overview: Global equities are marching higher. While the Dow Jones Industrials posted its biggest advance since 1933, the US is lagging behind other leading benchmarks. The MSCI Asia Pacific advanced, led by Japan's Nikkei's 8% gain. It was third consecutive gain, during which time the Nikkei has rallied 17%. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 6…
Relief, but... Relief, but... Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 25, 2020 Rating: 5
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Where can Mexico Go?

March 24, 2020
In the old world that ended sometime last month, the peso was a king. It was among the strongest currencies in the world and appreciated against the US dollar for the past three years. It appreciated nearly 10% against the greenback, which itself was rising against most currencies.  
Mexico is poorly placed to deal with the coming economic shock. T…
Where can Mexico Go? Where can Mexico Go? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 24, 2020 Rating: 5
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Relief Bounce On Tuesday, but Turn Around not Secure

March 24, 2020
Overview: Bottom-picking, after officials step up efforts and some optimism creeps in, is helping lift spirits today. As one looks at the equity bounces, it is important to remember that among the biggest rallies take place in bear markets. Nearly all the bourses in Asia-Pacific rallied, led by a 7% advance by Japan's Nikkei and an 8%+ surge i…
Relief Bounce On Tuesday, but Turn Around not Secure Relief Bounce On Tuesday, but Turn Around not Secure Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 24, 2020 Rating: 5
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Conference Call Replay

March 23, 2020
Here is the link for the replay of the conference call I hosted earlier today.  I shared two ways in which this crisis is different from what we have seen in the last generation.  Unlike the Great Financial Crisis, the tech bubble, and the S&L Crisis, the current crisis did not begin in the financial sector, but the real economy.   Also, what …
Conference Call Replay Conference Call Replay Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 23, 2020 Rating: 5
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