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Welcome to the High Vol World: What the Charts Say

March 15, 2020
The dollar soared last week as a collapse of equity markets and disruption even to sovereign bond markets unveiled a large shortage of dollars.  This shortage was seen in the spread of onshore and offshore dollar rates and in the cross-currency basis swaps. The strain seems less evident in the use of the swap lines that the Federal Reserve has in …
Welcome to the High Vol World: What the Charts Say Welcome to the High Vol World: What the Charts Say Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 15, 2020 Rating: 5
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Now We are Getting Serious

March 14, 2020
There is folklore among many investors that is preventing an understanding of what is happening. The fiction is that the Fed has killed the last three expansions by pursuing too tight of monetary policy. In fact, the previous three downturns were caused by financial crises (the S&L Crisis, the Tech Bubble, and the Great Financial Crisis) that …
Now We are Getting Serious Now We are Getting Serious Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 14, 2020 Rating: 5
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No Rest for the Weary

March 13, 2020
Overview:  The ECB boosted this year's asset purchases, lightened capital requirement rules, liberalized collateral requirements, suspended the annual stress tests, and provided for long-term loans at a rate as much as 25 bp below the negative 50 bp deposit rate. The market was nonplused.  Later in the day, the Federal Reserve announced $2 tri…
No Rest for the Weary No Rest for the Weary Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 13, 2020 Rating: 5
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Trump Dump as Market Turns to ECB

March 12, 2020
Overview: After the Bank of England and the UK Treasury announced both monetary and fiscal support, the focus turns to the ECB, but the proximity of the US Congressional recess (next week) without strong fiscal measures being in place sucked the oxygen away from other issues. President Trump's national address in the Asian session failed to re…
Trump Dump as Market Turns to ECB Trump Dump as Market Turns to ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 12, 2020 Rating: 5
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US Over-Promises and Under-Delivers, while BOE Steps Up with 50 bp Rate Cut US Over-Promises and Under-Delivers, while BOE Steps Up with 50 bp Rate Cut Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 11, 2020 Rating: 5
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Markets Stabilize after Body Blow

March 10, 2020
Overview:  It appears after a few days of miscues, US officials struck the right chord, and the global capital markets seemed to stabilize shortly after the US session ended.  President Trump's press conference today is expected to spell out in greater detail relief for households and businesses.  Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by a 3% sur…
Markets Stabilize after Body Blow Markets Stabilize after Body Blow Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 10, 2020 Rating: 5
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Monday Meltdown

March 09, 2020
Overview: Equities plunged, and yields sank as the coronavirus threatens a global recession. The oil price war signaled by Saudi Arabia and Russia aggravates the desperate situation. Equities markets in the Asia Pacific region slumped 3-7%. The Shanghai Composite was fell 3%. The Nikkei was off by 5%, and Australia was hit among the hardest with a…
Monday Meltdown Monday Meltdown Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 09, 2020 Rating: 5
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What You Should Know about the Other Shock: Oil Prices

March 08, 2020
The outbreak of Covid-19 continues to be the major disruptive force, impacting households, investors, businesses, and policymakers.  The virus hits vulnerable individuals and institutions.  Monetary policy, and in some places, including Italy, fiscal policy will be deployed too.  The handling of the crisis could shape both Chairman Xi and Presiden…
What You Should Know about the Other Shock: Oil Prices What You Should Know about the Other Shock: Oil Prices Reviewed by Marc Chandler on March 08, 2020 Rating: 5
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