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Technicals before Christmas: Be Careful Playing Breaks

December 22, 2019
There were a few notable developments in terms of the price action in the foreign exchange market last week.  The biggest was the four-day drop in sterling that took it down 2.5% on the week, which is the largest decline since the flash crash in October 2016 that saw it lose more than 4%.  On the other side was the Norwegian krone.  It was the str…
Technicals before Christmas: Be Careful Playing Breaks Technicals before Christmas: Be Careful Playing Breaks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2019 Rating: 5
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Economic Data in the Holiday-Shortened Week

December 21, 2019
The capital markets will turn increasingly quiet in the week ahead as the Christmas holiday thins participation.  If this is the season of goodwill, investors are lapping it up.  Global equity markets are finishing a strong year on a high note.  Record highs were recorded in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600.  The MSCI Emerging Markets e…
Economic Data in the Holiday-Shortened Week Economic Data in the Holiday-Shortened Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 21, 2019 Rating: 5
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Sterling Trades Higher after Test on $1.30

December 20, 2019
Overview:  The holiday mood has tightened its grip on the capital markets, and global investors have nearly completely ignored the impeachment of the US President as it has little economic or policy significance.  US equities reached new record highs yesterday with the S&P 500 moving above 3200.   Asia Pacific equities were mixed, leaving the …
Sterling Trades Higher after Test on $1.30 Sterling Trades Higher after Test on $1.30 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 20, 2019 Rating: 5
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Whiff of Inflation in the Air

December 19, 2019
Overview: It is risky to read too much into the price action in holiday-thin markets, but inflation fears are beginning to surface. The price of January WTI is around $61, having tested $50 a barrel in Q3. The CRB Index made new highs for the year yesterday and is up almost 9% for the year. The US yield curve (2-10 year) has been steepening after …
Whiff of Inflation in the Air Whiff of Inflation in the Air Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 19, 2019 Rating: 5
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Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of Central Bank Meetings

December 18, 2019
Overview: The capital markets have turned quiet as the year-end positioning drives prices in lieu of fresh developments. Equities in the Asia Pacific region were narrowly mixed.T he smaller markets in Asia performed better than the large bourses of Japan, China, and Korea, which eased. European equities are off to a firm start, and the Dow Jones S…
Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of Central Bank Meetings Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of Central Bank Meetings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 18, 2019 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Weaponization of the Dollar and the Search for an Alternative

December 17, 2019
I talked to Rick Santelli on CNBC earlier today about the dollar.  A link to the video clip can be found here.  Our brief discussion had two components.  In the first, talked about the seemingly never-ending quest for an alternative to the dollar.  I have argued that the biggest threat to the greenback's role in economics and finance does not …
Cool Video: Weaponization of the Dollar and the Search for an Alternative Cool Video:  Weaponization of the Dollar and the Search for an Alternative Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 17, 2019 Rating: 5
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Sterling Drops as New Brinkmanship Begins

December 17, 2019
Overview: Efforts by a UK Prime Minister emboldened by a strong electoral victory to ensure that trade negotiations with the EU are not extended as the divorce has encouraged further profit-taking on sterling. After testing the $1.35 area on the exit polls last week, sterling had returned to where it closed before the results were known near $1.31…
Sterling Drops as New Brinkmanship Begins Sterling Drops as New Brinkmanship Begins Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 17, 2019 Rating: 5
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China Data Surprises to the Upside while Europe's Manufacturing PMI Disappoints China Data Surprises to the Upside while Europe's Manufacturing PMI Disappoints Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 16, 2019 Rating: 5
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Look for Near-Term Dollar Recovery

December 15, 2019
The dollar extended the down move that began at the start of the month last week.  It fell against nearly all the currencies in the world but the yen and Turkish lira. However, the near-term decline may be exhausted, and a recovery is likely in the days ahead.  With interest rates low and much of the perceived event risk being alleviated, this is …
Look for Near-Term Dollar Recovery Look for Near-Term Dollar Recovery Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 15, 2019 Rating: 5
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