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Markets Take Collective Breath Ahead of the Weekend

August 16, 2019
Overview:  The global capital markets are ending the tumultuous week calmly, but it is far from clear that is will hold long.  Next week's flash PMIs have potential to disappoint, and there is risk of new escalation in the US-China trade conflict as the PRC threatens to take action to countermeasures to the new US tariffs. Most equity markets …
Markets Take Collective Breath Ahead of the Weekend Markets Take Collective Breath Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 16, 2019 Rating: 5
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Animal Spirits Lick Wounds

August 15, 2019
Overview:  It took some time for investors to recognize that the scaling back of US tariff plans was not part of a de-escalation agreement. There was an explicit acknowledgment by US Commerce Secretary Ross that there was no quid pro quo. The US tariff split was more about the US than an overture to China.  In fact, as China did in September whe…
Animal Spirits Lick Wounds Animal Spirits Lick Wounds Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 15, 2019 Rating: 5
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Markets Paring Exaggerated Response to US Blink

August 14, 2019
Overview:  The US cut its list of Chinese goods that will be hit with a 10% tariff at the start of next month by a little roe than half, delaying the others until the mid-December.  This spurred a near-euphoric response by market participants throughout the capital markets.  However, as the news was digested, it did not seem as much of a game-chan…
Markets Paring Exaggerated Response to US Blink Markets Paring Exaggerated Response to US Blink Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 14, 2019 Rating: 5
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Investors Remain on Edge

August 13, 2019
Overview:  The confrontation in Hong Kong and the fallout from the Argentine primary over the weekend join concerns the conflict between the two largest economies and slower growth to force the animal spirits into hibernation.  Global equities remain under pressure.  Japan's Topix joined several other markets in the region to have given up its…
Investors Remain on Edge Investors Remain on Edge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 13, 2019 Rating: 5
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Making Sense of the Dollar: Ten Years Later

August 12, 2019
My first book, Making Sense of the Dollar, was published by Bloomberg Press ten years ago this week.  It was named a Bronze medal winner by Independent Publishers.  It sought to counter the declinists of the period who, understandably, if even mistakenly, thought the dollar was on an exorable path that had been carved by sterling as it lost numera…
Making Sense of the Dollar: Ten Years Later Making Sense of the Dollar:  Ten Years Later Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 12, 2019 Rating: 5
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Yen Remains Bid, While Macri's Loss in Argentina Weighs on Struggling Mexican Peso Yen Remains Bid, While Macri's Loss in Argentina Weighs on Struggling Mexican Peso Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 12, 2019 Rating: 5
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Every Currency is a Snowflake

August 11, 2019
The dollar was mostly weaker against the major currencies last week.  The Swiss franc and Japanese yen were joined by the seemingly unlikely candidate, the Swedish krona, to have gained about 1% against the US dollar last week to the lead the majors.  The yen and franc's gains extended moves already underway and perhaps, accentuated by the sel…
Every Currency is a Snowflake Every Currency is a Snowflake Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 11, 2019 Rating: 5
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Macro Deterioration

August 10, 2019
The US-China tensions remain the dominant driver of investor risk appetitesPresident Trump has repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency on twitter, and finally Treasury Secretary Mnuchiin acquiesced after China failed to prevent the dollar from rising above CNY7.0. China set the reference rate for the dollar lower than models based…
Macro Deterioration Macro Deterioration Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 10, 2019 Rating: 5
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