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Dollar Underpinned by Ideas that the Fed has more Room but less Urgency to Cut Dollar Underpinned by Ideas that the Fed has more Room but less Urgency to Cut Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 07, 2019 Rating: 5
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In Bizzaro Beauty Contest, the US is Still the Least Ugly

July 06, 2019
Our hypothesis that the market had reached peak dovishness toward the Fed remains intact after the employment data.  Job growth was the strongest since January.  The participation rate and the unemployment rate ticked up. Average hourly earnings edged 0.2%  higher, and, with revisions, maintained a 3.1% year-over-year pace, which is a bit disappoi…
In Bizzaro Beauty Contest, the US is Still the Least Ugly In Bizzaro Beauty Contest, the US is Still the Least Ugly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 06, 2019 Rating: 5
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Dollar is Bid Ahead of Jobs Report

July 05, 2019
Overview:  The dovish response to news that Lagarde was nominated to replace Draghi was extended by the dismal German factory order report that has pushed the euro to new two-week lows and kept bond yields near record lows.  The focus ahead of the weekend is squarely on the US employment data, where a second consecutive poor report will fan expect…
Dollar is Bid Ahead of Jobs Report Dollar is Bid Ahead of Jobs Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 05, 2019 Rating: 5
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Yields Extend Decline

July 03, 2019
Overview: Interest rates are lurching lower.  The US 10-year yield is at new two-year lows, but the driver is European bonds where peripheral yields are 6-7 bp lower,  though Italy's benchmark is off 12 bp, while core yields are down 2-3 bp to new record lows.  The German benchmark is almost minus 40 bp, while the Swiss 10-year is beyond minus…
Yields Extend Decline Yields Extend Decline Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2019 Rating: 5
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What's New in the IMF's COFER Report?

July 02, 2019
The IMF provides the most authoritative report on central bank reserve holdings.  It is released at the end of the quarter for the previous quarter.  Reserves as of the end of Q1 were released at the end of last week. The data can be found here. /div>
Economists and analysts scrutinize the data to see if they can detect shifts in preferences.  H…
What's New in the IMF's COFER Report? What's New in the IMF's COFER Report? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2019 Rating: 5
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Post-G20 Euphoria Fades, Stuck with Same Reality

July 02, 2019
Overview:The euphoria that greeted the resumption of US-China and US-North Korea talks has subsided.  Global equities have turned mixed after yesterday's surge.  Hong Kong played catch-up, and despite ongoing demonstrations, the Hang Seng rallied over one percent, and the Hong Kong Dollar strengthened beyond its band midpoint for the first tim…
Post-G20 Euphoria Fades, Stuck with Same Reality Post-G20 Euphoria Fades, Stuck with Same Reality Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2019 Rating: 5
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July Monthly

July 01, 2019
June was a cruel month for the US dollar. It fell against all the world’s currencies as investors became convinced that the Federal Reserve would soon embark on an aggressive easing course that will see 75 basis points of rate cuts this year.  Most of the major central banks have an easing bias, but it is the greenback that has seen its interest r…
July Monthly July Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2019 Rating: 5
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Trade Optimism Meets Reality of Disappointing PMI

July 01, 2019
Overview:  A new tariff truce between the US and China, coupled with the North Korean diplomacy and Russia-Saudi tentative agreement boosted investor confidence and sharp equity rallies.  Japanese and Chinese equities rallied 2-3%.  Most markets rallied in Asia-Pacific except for South Korea's Kospi and Hong Kong markets were closed as the han…
Trade Optimism Meets Reality of Disappointing PMI Trade Optimism Meets Reality of Disappointing PMI Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2019 Rating: 5
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