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Jobs Data and Tariffs Dominate

June 07, 2019
Overview:  Global equities continue to recover from the recent slide.  Chinese and Hong Kong markets were on holiday today, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a minor gain and ensured that its four-week slide ended.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.7% through the European morning.  It is the fourth advancing session this week,…
Jobs Data and Tariffs Dominate Jobs Data and Tariffs Dominate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 07, 2019 Rating: 5
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US Tariff Threats on Mexico Compete with ECB for Attention

June 06, 2019
Overview:  The implications of President Trump's assessment that there has not been "nearly enough" progress in negotiations with Mexico that would avert the tariff on June 10 competing for investors' attention, which had been squarely today's ECB meeting.  Minutes before Trump spoke Fitch cut its sovereign rating for Mexico …
US Tariff Threats on Mexico Compete with ECB for Attention US Tariff Threats on Mexico Compete with ECB for Attention Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 06, 2019 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains on Back Foot

June 05, 2019
Overview:   The Federal Reserve's patience never excluded a rate cut should conditions warrant.  The acknowledgment of this without signaling a change its stance is being seized upon to justify aggressive pricing of rates.  At the same time, there has some tempering of trade anxiety on the margin that is also constructive.  Asia and European e…
Dollar Remains on Back Foot Dollar Remains on Back Foot Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 05, 2019 Rating: 5
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Nervous Calm Settles Over Markets

June 04, 2019
Overview:  The global capital markets are stabilizing today after taking a body blow of broadening the use of US tariffs (in migration dispute with Mexico), threatening the ratification of NAFTA 2.0, and still escalating hostile rhetoric between the US and China, and the threat of anti-trust action against the largest digital platforms. The declin…
Nervous Calm Settles Over Markets Nervous Calm Settles Over Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2019 Rating: 5
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US Penchant for Tariffs Keeps Investors on Edge

June 03, 2019
Overview:  The weekend failed to break the grip of investor worries that is driving stocks and yields lower.  The US Administration's penchant for tariffs is not simply aimed at China, where there is some sympathy, but the move against Mexico, dropping special privileges for India, and apparently, had considered tariffs on Australia.  At the s…
US Penchant for Tariffs Keeps Investors on Edge US Penchant for Tariffs Keeps Investors on Edge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2019 Rating: 5
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Will US Economic Nationalism Continue to be Good for the Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc? Will US Economic Nationalism Continue to be Good for the Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2019 Rating: 5
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Curiouser and Curiouser

June 01, 2019
The first week of June features the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, an ECB meeting, and the US employment data.  The RBA is expected to deliver its first rate cut in three years.  The market appears to have discounted not only a second cut in H2 but has priced nearly half of a third cut as well. 
A soft inflation reading after the seasonal bump …
Curiouser and Curiouser Curiouser and Curiouser Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2019 Rating: 5
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June Monthly

May 31, 2019
The tariff truce came to an abrupt end via presidential tweets on May 3.  Until those tweets, US officials had been indicating that progress was being made and there was hope that at the sidelines of the G20 meeting that Trump and Xi would agree on a trade deal.  The end of the tariff truce marked a turning point in the markets. Risk appetites wer…
June Monthly June Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2019 Rating: 5
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