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June Monthly

May 31, 2019
The tariff truce came to an abrupt end via presidential tweets on May 3.  Until those tweets, US officials had been indicating that progress was being made and there was hope that at the sidelines of the G20 meeting that Trump and Xi would agree on a trade deal.  The end of the tariff truce marked a turning point in the markets. Risk appetites wer…
June Monthly June Monthly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2019 Rating: 5
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US Struggles to Build Physical Wall, Tries Tariff Wall on Mexico

May 31, 2019
Overview:  The US announcement to lay a 5% tariff on all goods coming from Mexico (starting June 10) until it stops the flow of "illegal migrants" spurred sharp losses in the Mexican peso and general risk-off move that strengthened the yen.  The tariffs are set to rise every month until reaching 25%.  This is a significant surprise and e…
US Struggles to Build Physical Wall, Tries Tariff Wall on Mexico US Struggles to Build Physical Wall, Tries Tariff Wall on Mexico Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 31, 2019 Rating: 5
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Kill Bull: Intermission

May 30, 2019
Overview:  After significant moves in equities and interest rates, investors are taking a collective breath, waiting for fresh developments.  A nervous calm has settled over the capital market.  China, Japan, and Australian equities leaked lower, but other bourses in the region, including Korea and Taiwan posted modest gains, while Indonesian equi…
Kill Bull: Intermission Kill Bull: Intermission Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 30, 2019 Rating: 5
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Canada, Mexico, and the USMCA

May 29, 2019
The US dollar closed today above CAD1.3500 for the first time since January 2.  Despite the setback, the Canadian dollar is the strongest of the major currencies year-to-date with a little less than a one percent gain.  The yen, in second, has is up about 0.2% (~JPY109.50).  Among emerging market currencies,  the Mexican peso's 2.6% gain puts …
Canada, Mexico, and the USMCA Canada, Mexico, and the USMCA Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 29, 2019 Rating: 5
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Equity Slump Deepens while Yields Plunge

May 29, 2019
Overview:  The slump in equities continues after the poor showing in the US yesterday.  Nearly all bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe are lower.  Indonesia is the notable exception as domestic operators re-position after the election.  Foreign investors have been notable sellers of Korean and Taiwanese shares this month (in excess of $6.2 bln). Eu…
Equity Slump Deepens while Yields Plunge Equity Slump Deepens while Yields Plunge Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 29, 2019 Rating: 5
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Risk Appetites Curbed, US Leadership Awaited in FX

May 28, 2019
Overview: The euro initially reacted positively to the EU Parliament elections. The populists did not do quite as well as many expected.  The two main groupings failed to secure a majority, but with the help of the Liberals, and possibly the Greens, that did well throughout Europe, a new European Commission will be forged.  The heads of state meet…
Risk Appetites Curbed, US Leadership Awaited in FX Risk Appetites Curbed, US Leadership Awaited in FX Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 28, 2019 Rating: 5
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How Durable of a Dollar Top?

May 26, 2019
After pushing higher in the first part of last week, the US dollar reversed lower and saw follow-through selling ahead of the weekend.  The reversal saw all the major currencies but the British pound gain on the greenback last week. Although the ineptitude of Prime Minister May has weighed on sterling, the immediate reaction to her departure saw t…
How Durable of a Dollar Top? How Durable of a Dollar Top?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 26, 2019 Rating: 5
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The Evolution of Three Issues are Key in the Week Ahead

May 25, 2019
As May winds down, the light economic calendar will allow investors to take their cues from the evolution of three disruptive forces--trade, Brexit and the US economy.  
With actions against Huawei and possibly a handful of Chinese surveillance equipment producers, the US raised the stakes. The retaliatory tariffs are effective on June 1, but Beij…
The Evolution of Three Issues are Key in the Week Ahead The Evolution of Three Issues are Key in the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 25, 2019 Rating: 5
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How UK Tories will Pick May's Successor

May 24, 2019
There is a two-step process to pick the next head of the Tory Party. The leader will be the Prime Minister and head a minority government. May’s minority government was supported by the Democrat Unionist Party from Northern Ireland. It is not clear that if a hard Brexiter succeeds May, the DUP will support it. This could trigger snap elections…
How UK Tories will Pick May's Successor How UK Tories will Pick May's Successor  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 24, 2019 Rating: 5
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