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US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes

February 20, 2019
Overview:  The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, but the strongest currency today is the Chinese yuan, following reports that US wants China to keep the yuan stable and not offset US tariffs with currency depreciation.  The second monthly decline in Japanese exports weighted on the yen.  In the UK, another Labour MP left, w…
US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 20, 2019 Rating: 5
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Investors Need Fresh Incentives

February 19, 2019
Overview: Activity in the global capital markets is subdued as investors await fresh developments. New wording for the Irish backstop apparently is being drafted.  US-China trade talks resume.  No decision has been made on US auto tariffs, but European and Japanese officials seem to be playing down the threat.  Separately, BOJ' Kuroda said the…
Investors Need Fresh Incentives Investors Need Fresh Incentives Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 19, 2019 Rating: 5
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Dollar Drifts Lower

February 18, 2019
Overview:  In quiet turnover, the US dollar slipped lower against most of the major currencies to start the new week.  The news stream is light and the US markets are closed today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up five of the past six weeks and extended its gains today.  Nearly all the equity markets in the region rose but India.  European mark…
Dollar Drifts Lower Dollar Drifts Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 18, 2019 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bulls may Turn Cautious

February 17, 2019
While we expect that the broad economic and monetary divergence will allow the dollar's uptrend to resume, more immediately we have been expecting the recent ranges to remain intact.  The ranges may have frayed, but the pre-weekend price action may reinforce them. With a slow start to the week ahead (US holiday and light economic calendar), i…
Dollar Bulls may Turn Cautious Dollar Bulls may Turn Cautious Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 17, 2019 Rating: 5
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Drivers, While Marking Time

February 16, 2019
The main issues for investors have not changed. There are three dominant ones: Trade, growth, and Brexit. Unfortunately, there won’t be any closure in the week ahead, and that may make short-term participants reluctant to turn more aggressive.
The US reported exceptionally poor December retail sales and January industrial output figures. Growth f…
Drivers, While Marking Time Drivers, While Marking Time Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 16, 2019 Rating: 5
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Equities Stall While Greenback Remains Firm

February 15, 2019
Overview:  The S&P 500 snapped a four-day advance yesterday, and equities in the Asia Pacific followed suit.  All the markets in the region were lower but in Australia.  MSCI's regional benchmark stalled after reached a four-month high in the middle of the week.  European markets were mostly higher in the morning session after slipping yes…
Equities Stall While Greenback Remains Firm Equities Stall While Greenback Remains Firm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 15, 2019 Rating: 5
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Socialism, Keynesianism, and Fascism

February 14, 2019
The American political discourse has changed since the 2018 midterm election. Enthusiasm and passion were to be found on the left-wing of the Democratic Party. A new sense of hope and mission replaced the defeatism and cynicism seen in 2016. Some identified with democratic socialism, but in the political rhetoric the broad brush of “socialism” ha…
Socialism, Keynesianism, and Fascism Socialism, Keynesianism, and Fascism Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 14, 2019 Rating: 5
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