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Is the Trend Your Friend or Fade the Break?

February 03, 2019
A basic but essential judgment short-term participants must make is whether a particular market is trending or rangebound.  It informs the technical tools one uses and the tactics one employs. Often one's timeframe shapes one's answer.  The dollar has either approached or gone through what previously seemed like the lower end of a range.�…
Is the Trend Your Friend or Fade the Break? Is the Trend Your Friend or Fade the Break? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2019 Rating: 5
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The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion

February 02, 2019
The information set investors have is unlikely to substantively change in the coming days.  The important macro points are known.  The first part of February may be about digesting and making sense of that information rather than an incremental increase.   
Investors had been concerned about what has become known as "quantitative tightening&…
The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion The Week Ahead is Mostly About Digestion Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2019 Rating: 5
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February Forex Outlook

February 01, 2019
US Dollar:  The Dollar Index has been softer over the past two months, only rising one week in December and one week in January.  It has been confined to about 100 points on either side of roughly 96.15 where it finished last year.  Although the S&P 500 has recouped a little more than half of the loss seen since the record high was set last Se…
February Forex Outlook February Forex Outlook Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2019 Rating: 5
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Short Note on Jobs Report

February 01, 2019
The January employment report was mixed.  It is unlikely to have a material impact on expectations for Fed policy.  However, it does suggest the downside risks may not materialize.  
The US economy grew 304k jobs, well above expectation.  It is marred by a 70k net downward revision of the past two months, and notably a 90k cut in December's es…
Short Note on Jobs Report Short Note on Jobs Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2019 Rating: 5
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Did the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder?

February 01, 2019
Overview:  Weak manufacturing PMI readings are curbing risk appetites ahead of the US jobs report.  Growth concerns are top and center after dovish Fed and the Bundesbank's Weidmann warning that Germany may undershoot 1.5% growth this year, though the ink is barely dry on the central bank's forecast for 1.6% growth this year and next. Equi…
Did the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder? Did the Fed Steal the Jobs Data Thunder? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2019 Rating: 5
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