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Disappointing Flash PMI Weighs on Euro

October 24, 2018
Overview:  The US dollar is firmer against the major currencies and most emerging market currencies.  While the seemingly fragile equity markets are still the center of investors' attention, the weakness of the eurozone flash PMI is disconcerting and has sent the euro closer to $1.14.  China's officials continue to unveil initiatives to mi…
Disappointing Flash PMI Weighs on Euro Disappointing Flash PMI Weighs on Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 24, 2018 Rating: 5
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Stock Slump Pushes Yields Lower and Buoys Yen

October 23, 2018
Overview:  There is one main story today, and that is the resumption of the slide in equities.  It is having a ripple effect through the capital markets.   Bond yields are tumbling.  Gold is firm.  The dollar is narrowly mixed, though the yen stands out with almost a 0.5% gain.  Most of the large equity markets in Asia, including Japan, China, Hon…
Stock Slump Pushes Yields Lower and Buoys Yen Stock Slump Pushes Yields Lower and Buoys Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 23, 2018 Rating: 5
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Europe Challenged

October 22, 2018
Europe is in an untenable position.  It is being challenged on many fronts.  A weaker euro need not result, but it is the path of least resistance.  
The economy has lost its momentum.  What was first written off as a soft patch, now looks a bit more serious.  This will be driven home by the flash PMI later this week, which is expected to fall to…
Europe Challenged Europe Challenged Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 22, 2018 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Bloomberg Discussion of Late US Cycle

October 22, 2018
An assessment of the US economy is an important input into the expectations of the dollar's behavior in the foreign exchange market. As a currency strategist, my views of the US economy are often subsumed in discussions or talked about indirectly by talking about Fed policy.  However, in this clip with Alix Steel and David Westin, I have an o…
Cool Video: Bloomberg Discussion of Late US Cycle Cool Video:  Bloomberg Discussion of Late US Cycle Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 22, 2018 Rating: 5
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Collective Sigh of Relief?

October 22, 2018
Overview:  Chinese stocks extended the pre-weekend recovery, with the major indices up 4%+, the biggest advance in three years.  Most markets in the region rose, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has a good start to snap the four-week drop.  European shares are also higher, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is 0.5% higher through late morning, led by Ital…
Collective Sigh of Relief? Collective Sigh of Relief? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 22, 2018 Rating: 5
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What Can Bite You This Week?

October 21, 2018
Several major central banks will meet next week, including the European Central Bank, but it is only the Bank of Canada that is expected to hike rates.  The flash PMIs and the first official estimate of Q3 US GDP are among the data highlights.  Beyond the events and data, the volatility from global equity markets from Shanghai to New York will con…
What Can Bite You This Week? What Can Bite You This Week? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 21, 2018 Rating: 5
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Does the Dollar have Legs?

October 20, 2018
The US dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies last week while several of the typically volatile emerging market currencies, like the Turkish lira, South African rand, and Brazilian real appreciated. The US President's criticism of the Federal Reserve, shared by many noted economists, including Nobel-prize winner Krugman (just …
Does the Dollar have Legs? Does the Dollar have Legs?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 20, 2018 Rating: 5
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Slower Chinese Growth and Italy and Spanish Woes Weigh on Sentiment Ahead of the Weekend Slower Chinese Growth and Italy and Spanish Woes Weigh on Sentiment Ahead of the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 19, 2018 Rating: 5
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Reprieve in Emerging Markets may be Nearly Over

October 18, 2018
We identified three forces that have undermined emerging markets as an asset class:   The US policy mix, which results in upward pressure on the dollar and interest rates, competes with other capital importers.  This coupled with the second force, the rise in oil prices (which to some extent is also the result of US policies, such as the embargo o…
Reprieve in Emerging Markets may be Nearly Over Reprieve in Emerging Markets may be Nearly Over Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 18, 2018 Rating: 5
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