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Trade Tensions Weigh on Equities, Lift Yen

June 25, 2018
Reports confirm that later this week, the US Treasury will announce new curbs on Chinese investment and trade.  The US considering preventing Chinese companies with a 25% (though could be lowered) government stake from buying US companies with industry significant technology."  Also, the US will block technology exports to China aimed at frus…
Trade Tensions Weigh on Equities, Lift Yen Trade Tensions Weigh on Equities, Lift Yen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 25, 2018 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

June 24, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)


EM FX ended Friday mixed, and capped off a mixed week overall as the dollar’s broad-based rally was sidetracked.  EM may start the week on an upbeat after PBOC cut reserve requirements over the weekend.  Best EM performers last week were ARS, MXN, and TRY while the worst were THB, IDR, and BRL. Indonesia reports May…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 24, 2018 Rating: 5
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Trade Tensions and EU Summit Highlight Q2's Last Week

June 24, 2018
We argue there are three major disruptive forces that are shaping the investment climate:  the US policy mix in relative and absolute terms, the escalation of trade tensions, and immigration.  In the week ahead, trade issues may eclipse the US policy mix, and immigration will compete with the economic and financial agenda at the European heads of …
Trade Tensions and EU Summit Highlight Q2's Last Week Trade Tensions and EU Summit Highlight Q2's Last Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 24, 2018 Rating: 5
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Technical Correction Spurred by Fundamental Trigger

June 23, 2018
The Bank of England seems to purposefully like to surprise investors and managed to do so again last week, as three of the nine MPC members, including the chief economist, dissented in favor of an immediate hike.  The move caught the market leaning the wrong way. A few hours before the announcement, both sterling, and the euro were sold to new low…
Technical Correction Spurred by Fundamental Trigger Technical Correction Spurred by Fundamental Trigger Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 23, 2018 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What Changed

June 22, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus was named the new Governor of Malaysia’s central bank.Moody's cut the outlook on Pakistan's B3 rating to negative from stable.National Bank of Hungary tiled more hawkish.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife was charged with misusing public funds.MSCI added Saudi Arabia an…
Emerging Markets: What Changed Emerging Markets: What Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 22, 2018 Rating: 5
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BOE Spurs Dollar Pullback

June 22, 2018
The Bank of England's hawkish hold yesterday, spurred by three dissents in favor of an immediate hike, changed the near-term dynamics in the foreign exchange market.  Both the euro and sterling fell to new lows for the year before reversing higher.  Yesterday's gains are being extended today. 
The euro and sterling closed above Wednesday…
BOE Spurs Dollar Pullback BOE Spurs Dollar Pullback Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 22, 2018 Rating: 5
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A Change Under Foot in Europe

June 21, 2018
It seems perverse and ironic that we frequently learn more from our failures than our successes.  This is translated into the affairs of countries by noting that crisis produces reforms.  This seems particularly relevant for Europe.  It remains a work in progress.  
EMU was born out of crisis.  It was not a crisis spurred by the drive to converge o…
A Change Under Foot in Europe A Change Under Foot in Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 21, 2018 Rating: 5
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