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Europe's Woes Multiply

June 05, 2018
The Markit group that provides many of the PMI surveys noted with today's reports that the eurozone outlook has "darkened dramatically."  This makes for a poor backdrop for the ECB, which meets next week.  However, with price pressures recovering from the Easter-related distortions, the ECB is still on track to finish its asset purch…
Europe's Woes Multiply Europe's Woes Multiply Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 05, 2018 Rating: 5
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Sterling Jumps Ahead, While US Equities Have Small Coattails

June 05, 2018
The British pound is benefiting from the stronger than expected service and composite PMI readings, which among other things are serving as a distraction from the government's seemingly tortured approach to Brexit and the sales of part of its stake in RBS for a GBP2 bln loss.  Financials are a drag on the FTSE 100 today (~-0.5% while other maj…
Sterling Jumps Ahead, While US Equities Have Small Coattails Sterling Jumps Ahead, While US Equities Have Small Coattails Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 05, 2018 Rating: 5
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More Color on Japanese Capital Flows and the Euro

June 04, 2018
The euro put in a low on May 29 a little above $1.15.  That is nearly a 10.5 cent decline since the three-year high was set in mid-February.  The thing that is difficult for investors and analysts to get their head around is that the speculators in the futures market, who as seen as proxies for trend-followers and momentum traders, continue to car…
More Color on Japanese Capital Flows and the Euro More Color on Japanese Capital Flows and the Euro Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2018 Rating: 5
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Corrective Pressures Weigh on the Dollar

June 04, 2018
The US dollar is broadly lower as corrective forces that were becoming evident in the second half of last week have carried over into today's activity.  The greenback is lower against all the major and most emerging market currencies.  Global equities have begun the new week on firm footing, and peripheral European bond markets continue to bui…
Corrective Pressures Weigh on the Dollar Corrective Pressures Weigh on the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2018 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

June 03, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week.  Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS.  US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.  
Indonesia reports May CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 3.3% …
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets:  Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2018 Rating: 5
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Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data

June 03, 2018
The main concerns of investors do not arise from the high-frequency data that are due in the coming days.  Last week, the somewhat firmer than expected preliminary May CPI for the EMU failed to bolster the euro.  The stronger than expected US jobs data, even if tipped by the President of the United States, and the pendulum of market sentiment swin…
Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2018 Rating: 5
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Technicals Warn of Window for Dollar Correction

June 02, 2018
The dollar's inability to rally ahead of the weekend on the back of a constructive jobs report and a re-pricing of the trajectory of Fed policy may signal that a corrective phase lies ahead.  The market had grown a bit skeptical of another hike after this month's anticipated Fed move during the turmoil that arose from political development…
Technicals Warn of Window for Dollar Correction Technicals Warn of Window for Dollar Correction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2018 Rating: 5
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Greenback's Inability to Rally on Strong Employment Report is Noteworthy

June 01, 2018
The US jobs data was stronger than expected and yet the impact on the dollar is modest.  The market is as confident of a hike at the June 13 FOMC meeting as it gets about these kinds of things.
The US created 223k net new jobs.  This is the strongest since the outsized 324k increase in February and follows two soft reports (135k in March and 159k i…
Greenback's Inability to Rally on Strong Employment Report is Noteworthy Greenback's Inability to Rally on Strong Employment Report is Noteworthy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2018 Rating: 5
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Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week

June 01, 2018
The week is ending quite a bit different than it began.  The main banking concern is not in Italy but in German, where shares in Deutsche Bank shares fell to a record low yesterday, and S&P Global cut its credit rating one step to BBB+ (third-lowest investment grade). 
The political angst is not focused on Rome but Madrid, where Rajoy lost a vo…
Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2018 Rating: 5
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