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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

June 03, 2018
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week.  Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS.  US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.  
Indonesia reports May CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 3.3% …
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2018 Rating: 5
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Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data

June 03, 2018
The main concerns of investors do not arise from the high-frequency data that are due in the coming days.  Last week, the somewhat firmer than expected preliminary May CPI for the EMU failed to bolster the euro.  The stronger than expected US jobs data, even if tipped by the President of the United States, and the pendulum of market sentiment swin…
Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data Macro Matters Now, Just Not the Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2018 Rating: 5
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Technicals Warn of Window for Dollar Correction

June 02, 2018
The dollar's inability to rally ahead of the weekend on the back of a constructive jobs report and a re-pricing of the trajectory of Fed policy may signal that a corrective phase lies ahead.  The market had grown a bit skeptical of another hike after this month's anticipated Fed move during the turmoil that arose from political development…
Technicals Warn of Window for Dollar Correction Technicals Warn of Window for Dollar Correction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2018 Rating: 5
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Greenback's Inability to Rally on Strong Employment Report is Noteworthy

June 01, 2018
The US jobs data was stronger than expected and yet the impact on the dollar is modest.  The market is as confident of a hike at the June 13 FOMC meeting as it gets about these kinds of things.
The US created 223k net new jobs.  This is the strongest since the outsized 324k increase in February and follows two soft reports (135k in March and 159k i…
Greenback's Inability to Rally on Strong Employment Report is Noteworthy Greenback's Inability to Rally on Strong Employment Report is Noteworthy Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2018 Rating: 5
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Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week

June 01, 2018
The week is ending quite a bit different than it began.  The main banking concern is not in Italy but in German, where shares in Deutsche Bank shares fell to a record low yesterday, and S&P Global cut its credit rating one step to BBB+ (third-lowest investment grade). 
The political angst is not focused on Rome but Madrid, where Rajoy lost a vo…
Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week Ironic Twists to End the Tumultuous Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 01, 2018 Rating: 5
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