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Chopping Wood in Thin Markets

December 27, 2017
The US dollar softened across the board in thin holiday markets.  News developments were light and the dollar's decline did not seem to be sparked by anything particular.  Commodity prices moved higher, though oil consolidated its recent gains. 
News that China had ordered the closure of its largest copper producer (Jiangxi Copper) for at least…
Chopping Wood in Thin Markets Chopping Wood in Thin Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 27, 2017 Rating: 5
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What Happened on Boxing Day?

December 26, 2017
There were several developments on the day after Christmas, while many markets remained closed and investors sidelined.   One of the most important developments was the euro's complete recovery from the flash crash of nearly three percent on Christmas day in the North American time zone.  
Recall that the euro finished last week near $1.1860, h…
What Happened on Boxing Day? What Happened on Boxing Day? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 26, 2017 Rating: 5
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Petro-Yuan? Really?

December 24, 2017
The launch of futures on Bitcoins was rushed so quickly through the regulatory channels that the anticipation was short-lived.  And as the recent price action amply demonstrates, the existence of a derivative market has not tamed the digital token's volatility.  It is still the early days, but Bitcoin futures do not look likely to change the w…
Petro-Yuan? Really? Petro-Yuan?  Really?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 24, 2017 Rating: 5
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No Santa Rally for Greenback?

December 23, 2017
The US dollar struggled the week before Christmas, despite the final approval of tax changes and a backing up of US interest rates.  The dollar fell against most of the major currencies except the Japanese yen.  The yen is particularly sensitive to changes in the US 10-year yield and the 14 bp increase over the past week, the most in Q4, kept the …
No Santa Rally for Greenback? No Santa Rally for Greenback? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2017 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

December 22, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) Fitch upgraded Indonesia by a notch to BBB with stable outlook.EU-Poland tensions entered a new phase.Cyril Ramaphosa was elected as the new ANC President over opponent Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.Argentina’s lower house approved President Macri’s pension reform bill.Sebastian Pinera won the Chilean presidency in the se…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2017 Rating: 5
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MACRO: Twenty-Eighteen

December 21, 2017
 Resiliency

This past year turned out to be quite a bit better than many had feared.The populist-nationalist wave did not sweep across Europe.It was a key risk a year ago, after the UK referendum and the US election, and spurred underperformance by the eurozone.The US exited the multilateral Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that had been years in th…
MACRO: Twenty-Eighteen MACRO:  Twenty-Eighteen Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 21, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Slips Lower in Dull Dealings

December 20, 2017
The US dollar is softening in the North American session.  Rising US yields appear to be giving the greenback a thin slice of support against the Japanese yen, against which is it trading at a five-day high above JPY113.00.   
The fundamental backdrop seems more favorable for the dollar than the price action.  It is not only the macro picture of fi…
Dollar Slips Lower in Dull Dealings Dollar Slips Lower in Dull Dealings Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 20, 2017 Rating: 5
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Brexit to the West and Polexit to the East?

December 19, 2017
There is not much the EU could have done to keep the UK in its club.  Former Prime Minister Cameron sought some concessions, but the importance assigned to immigration and regaining sovereignty by the Brexit camp and British media meant that there was no politically realistic concession that the EU could have made to appease those favoring to leav…
Brexit to the West and Polexit to the East? Brexit to the West and Polexit to the East? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 19, 2017 Rating: 5
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