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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

June 04, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM FX closed last week on a firm note as weak US jobs data supported the notion that the Fed will find it hard to tighten in H2.  No major US data will be reported this week and the FOMC embargo for the June 14will be in effect.  As such, there is little on the near-term horizon that might help the dollar, so it’s …
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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ECB Meeting and UK Election Key Drivers in Week Ahead

June 04, 2017
This week's two main events, the ECB meeting and the UK national election have drawn investors intentions in recent weeks.  The ECB may take a baby step on what promises several quarter exit path from its extraordinary monetary policy.   
UK Prime Minister May's call for a snap election was seen as a strong move, taking advantage of the app…
ECB Meeting and UK Election Key Drivers in Week Ahead ECB Meeting and UK Election Key Drivers in Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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Speculators make Small Adjustments, but Like that Peso

June 03, 2017
Speculators in the future market made mostly minor adjustment in the gross positioning in the currencies.  Ten of the 16 gross positions we track were adjusted by less than 3k contracts.  
There was only one above 7k.  The bulls added 13.9k contracts, which lifted the gross long position to 112.5k contracts.  It is the most in nearly three years.  …
Speculators make Small Adjustments, but Like that Peso Speculators make Small Adjustments, but Like that Peso Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Dogged by Disappointing Data

June 03, 2017
The technical indicators warn that the US dollar is stretched, but the combination of disappointing auto sales and jobs report may deny it the interest rate support needed to facilitate a resumption of the bull market. While there are many observers talking about the abdication of the US from its global leadership role given the decision to pull o…
Dollar Dogged by Disappointing Data Dollar Dogged by Disappointing Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 03, 2017 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

June 02, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
The Indonesian cabinet is discussing revisions to the 2017 state budget.The Thai central bank plans to reform some FX rules.South African President Zuma survived the no confidence vote within his own ANC.Brazil’s central bank signaled a slower pace of easing ahead after it cut 100 bp again.Moody’…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2017 Rating: 5
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Drop in the US Unemployment Rate Not Sufficient to Mask Disappointing Report

June 02, 2017
The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, a new multi-year low, but it is a misleading optic for what is a disappointing report.  It is likely not weak enough to put much doubt into expectations for a Fed hike later this month, but it will reinforce the caution in the Beige Book and in recent comments from some Fed officials.  
Besides th…
Drop in the US Unemployment Rate Not Sufficient to Mask Disappointing Report Drop in the US Unemployment Rate Not Sufficient to Mask Disappointing Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Marks Time Ahead of US Jobs Report

June 02, 2017
The foreign exchange market is becalmed, leaving the US dollar narrowly mixed.  The euro has been confined to less than a 20-pip range through the Asian session and most of the European morning.  The news stream is light.  The US withdrawal from the Paris Accord may have garnered the headlines, but as a market force, it is difficult to detect the …
Dollar Marks Time Ahead of US Jobs Report Dollar Marks Time Ahead of US Jobs Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on June 02, 2017 Rating: 5
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