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Euro Trades Higher, Approaches Key Area

May 04, 2017
Despite the hawkish hold of the FOMC yesterday and increased confidence of a June hike, the euro is making new highs against the dollar since the US election last November. The euro is breaking out of the $1.0850-$1.0950 range that has dominated since the first round of the French presidential election.  
As the Great Graphic (from Bloomberg) illus…
Euro Trades Higher, Approaches Key Area Euro Trades Higher, Approaches Key Area Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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Thoughts on the US Work Week and Productivity

May 04, 2017
Output is a function of how many hours are being worked and productivity.  Ahead of tomorrow's US employment report, let's look closer at these two variables.  
The average weekly hours worked in the US has been fairly steady in recent years.  The average over the past year through March was 34.4 hours, and the three-year average is 34.5 ho…
Thoughts on the US Work Week and Productivity Thoughts on the US Work Week and Productivity Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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Greenback Struggles to Sustain Upticks, Though Odds of June Hike Rise

May 04, 2017
The US dollar is struggling to maintain even modest upticks against the euro and sterling despite the recognition of the increased likelihood of a June Fed hike.    Bloomberg sees current pricing in the Fed funds as making a hike in June a near certainty (97.5%), while the CME and our own calculation estimates the market is discounting around 70%-…
Greenback Struggles to Sustain Upticks, Though Odds of June Hike Rise Greenback Struggles to Sustain Upticks, Though Odds of June Hike Rise Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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Fed Skips May and Looks to June

May 03, 2017
The Federal Reserve dislikes surprising the market and it refrained from doing so today.  Policy was unchanged and the Fed saw the weakness in Q1 as being transitory.  There were no dissents and no fresh insight into its balance sheet strategy.  
The Fed also looked past the weakness in the March non-farm payrolls report, noting that the labor mark…
Fed Skips May and Looks to June Fed Skips May and Looks to June Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 03, 2017 Rating: 5
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Corporate Cash, Taxes and US Treasury Yields

May 03, 2017
A majority of Federal Reserve officials expect that conditions will warrant two more hikes this year.  That would put the Fed funds target range at 1.25%-1.50% at year-end.  Yet the two-year note yields less than 1.3% and the 10-year yield has been struggling to sustain gains above 2.30%.  
Several central banks, including the People's Bank of …
Corporate Cash, Taxes and US Treasury Yields Corporate Cash, Taxes and US Treasury Yields Reviewed by Marc Chandler on May 03, 2017 Rating: 5
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