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Short Note on US Employment Report

April 06, 2017
The US jobs data is notoriously difficult to accurately forecast consistently.  I do not claim to do so now.  My intent is more modest.  It is simply to point out why I think there is risk that the jobs data is disappointing, especially after the stronger than expected ADP estimate. 
The same forces that weighed on March auto sales may have slowed …
Short Note on US Employment Report Short Note on US Employment Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2017 Rating: 5
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Picking up the Czech

April 06, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
The Czech National Bank (CNB) ended the EUR/CZK floor today. Timing was a little earlier than expected, but rising inflation and a robust economy warranted it.  We think it’s too soon to talk about a rate hike, as we expect the koruna to overshoot to the strong side.  
POLICY OUTLOOK
Price pressures are rising, with …
Picking up the Czech Picking up the Czech Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 06, 2017 Rating: 5
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Impressive Japanese Flows at the end of the Fiscal Year

April 05, 2017
Japan's Ministry of Finance reports portfolio flows on a weekly basis with a week lag.  The data just reported covers the last week in March, as the Japanese  fiscal year was drawing to a close.

Japanese investors bought foreign bonds and stocks. The JPY1.1 trillion of  foreign bonds purchased snaps a eight-week selling spree. It is the larges…
Impressive Japanese Flows at the end of the Fiscal Year Impressive Japanese Flows at the end of the Fiscal Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 05, 2017 Rating: 5
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FOMC Minutes Suggest Balance Sheet May Begin Shrinking This Year

April 05, 2017
The FOMC minutes were clear that officials are contemplating beginning address the balance sheet, which is another sign of confidence in the normalization process. However, beyond that very little else is clear.   There does not appear to be much agreement yet on the pace or the scope of the adjustment. 
There are roughly $425 bln of US Treasuries …
FOMC Minutes Suggest Balance Sheet May Begin Shrinking This Year FOMC Minutes Suggest Balance Sheet May Begin Shrinking This Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 05, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dialing it Up on Hump Day

April 04, 2017
The dollar is practically unchanged against the euro and yen in the first two sessions of the week.  The pace can be expected to pick up starting Wednesday.
Japan's service and composite PMI's rose to 52.9 (from 51.3 and 52.2 respectively). It confirms what we (and others) have recognized, namely that Japanese growth strengthened in the fir…
Dialing it Up on Hump Day Dialing it Up on Hump Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on April 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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