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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

February 03, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
Philippine Environment Department suspended 5 mines and closed 21 after a nationwide audit.The Turkish central bank raised its end-2017 forecast from 6.5% to 8% due largely to the weak lira.Central Bank of Turkey finally got around to releasing the schedule of its MPC meetings this year.Fitch downgraded Turkey last…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2017 Rating: 5
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The Future of Globalization

February 03, 2017
(draft of monthly column for a Chinese paper)
The cross-border movement of goods, services, and capital increased markedly for the thirty years up to the Great Financial Crisis.  Although the recovery has given way to a new economic expansion in the major economies, global trade and capital flows remain well below pre-crisis levels.  It gives a sen…
The Future of Globalization The Future of Globalization Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2017 Rating: 5
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US Jobs Trump Europe's Service PMIs

February 03, 2017
Ahead of the weekend, there are two series of economic reports. The first is Europe's service PMI reports and the second is the US employment report.  Neither report is likely to alter views significantly, but the latter has greater potential to move markets.  
The eurozone economy appears to be expanding at a stable rate,somewhat above what is…
US Jobs Trump Europe's Service PMIs US Jobs Trump Europe's Service PMIs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 03, 2017 Rating: 5
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Sterling Reverses Lower on BOE

February 02, 2017
The market heard a dovish Bank of England today and sent sterling down by around than one percent. Initially sterling had reached its highest level since the US election; extending its recent rally a little through $1.27, but has now reversed lower. A close below yesterday's low ($1.2540) would be a potential key reversal. We had identified se…
Sterling Reverses Lower on BOE Sterling Reverses Lower on BOE Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2017 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: French Premium over Germany Continues to Grow

February 02, 2017
The rise of interest rates in Europe have seen premiums over Germany increase.  This is not unusual.  Often the intra-European spreads are sensitive to the underlying direction of rates.  The premiums often narrow in a falling rate environment and widen when rates are rising.  
It is one thing for the Italian or Portuguese premium to rise, but what…
Great Graphic: French Premium over Germany Continues to Grow Great Graphic: French Premium over Germany Continues to Grow Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Remains on Back Foot After ADP and FOMC

February 02, 2017
The US dollar remains on its back foot despite the stronger than expected ADP job estimate and the FOMC that said nothing to dissuade investors that it will be gradually raising rates this year.  
Japanese equities tumbled more than 1% while the 10-year JGB yield rose above 10 bp without eliciting a response from the BOJ.  The dollar failed to push…
Dollar Remains on Back Foot After ADP and FOMC Dollar Remains on Back Foot After ADP and FOMC Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 02, 2017 Rating: 5
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Markets Stabilize, Investors Await Signals from US data and FOMC, and POTUS

February 01, 2017
(commentary will be sporadic for the next couple of weeks during a European business trip)
The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses that were spurred speculation that the US was abandoning the more than 20-year old strong dollar policy. The meaning of that policy was clear to global investors even if it was often parodied.  It was firs…
Markets Stabilize, Investors Await Signals from US data and FOMC, and POTUS Markets Stabilize, Investors Await Signals from US data and FOMC, and POTUS Reviewed by Marc Chandler on February 01, 2017 Rating: 5
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