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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

January 29, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)


EM was truly mixed last week, pulled in both directions by both idiosyncratic risks and global developments.  MXN, BRL, and ZAR were the best performers on the week, while TRY, HUF, and RON were the worst.  MXN gained despite signs that Trump will maintain a bellicose stance towards Mexico, but we think the peso rem…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2017 Rating: 5
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Yellen nor Kuroda nor Carney will Take the Spotlight from Trump

January 29, 2017
Three major central banks meet in the week ahead, and there are several important reports due out that will give investors more insight into how the economies have begun the new year.However, the uncertainty surrounding these events and data pale in comparison to known and unknown impulses from the new US Administration.  
On one hand, there is lit…
Yellen nor Kuroda nor Carney will Take the Spotlight from Trump Yellen nor Kuroda nor Carney will Take the Spotlight from Trump Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 29, 2017 Rating: 5
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Specs Cover Short Euro and Yen, but Buy the Aussie

January 28, 2017
Speculative activity picked up in the latest CFTC reporting period ending January 24. There were three gross position adjustments of more than 10k contracts.  
Speculators covered 11.1k previously sold euro futures to reduce the gross short position to 184.3k contracts. Though it still is large, it reflects a 30% reduction from the peak in late Oct…
Specs Cover Short Euro and Yen, but Buy the Aussie Specs Cover Short Euro and Yen, but Buy the Aussie Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 28, 2017 Rating: 5
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State of the Dollar's Downside Correction

January 28, 2017
The US dollar spent the first month of the new year correcting lower after a strong advance in the last several months of 2016.We argue that the correction actually began in mid-December following the Federal Reserve's rate hike.  Over the last two week, we have been cautioning that greenback's downside momentum was fading and the correcti…
State of the Dollar's Downside Correction State of the Dollar's Downside Correction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 28, 2017 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

January 27, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

Press reports suggest that China’s central bank has ordered banks to limit new loans in Q1.Fitch revised the outlook on Nigeria’s B+ rating from stable to negative.Russia announced details of the FX purchase plan.Brazil’s central bank confirmed it will simplify the reserve requirement system for banks.S&P cut t…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2017 Rating: 5
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US GDP Misses, but Final Domestic Sales Accelerate

January 27, 2017
The first estimate of Q4 16 US GDP undershot expectations at 1.9%.Most had looked for annualized pace of a little more than 2% after the 3.5% pace in Q3.  The Q3 pace was always suspect given the unsustainable surge in agriculture (soy) exports.  Net exports were a significant drag on GDP, taking 1.7 percentage points off growth.  That is the most…
US GDP Misses, but Final Domestic Sales Accelerate US GDP Misses, but Final Domestic Sales Accelerate Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2017 Rating: 5
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Week Ending on Mixed Note as Year of Rooster Begins

January 27, 2017
The Lunar New Year celebration thinned participation in Asia, where several centers are closed. Although the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped slightly, it rose 1.5% on the week, the fourth weekly gain in the past five weeks.  The Nikkei advanced 0.35%, the third rise in a row.  The 1.75% gain for the week snaps a two-week decline. 
The pullback in t…
Week Ending on Mixed Note as Year of Rooster Begins Week Ending on Mixed Note as Year of Rooster Begins Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 27, 2017 Rating: 5
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