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State of Dollar's Correction

January 07, 2017
The lack of full participation and the resulting choppy conditions may have obscured the signal from the capital markets.  That signal we think was one of correction since shortly after the Fed's rate hike in mid-December.   The question now, after the US employment data showed continued labor market strength and that earnings improvement rema…
State of Dollar's Correction State of Dollar's Correction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 07, 2017 Rating: 5
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US Jobs Details Better than the Headline

January 06, 2017
The US created a net new 156k jobs in December, which was slightly disappointing.  The average work week slipped unexpectedly.  However, most the rest of the jobs report was constructive.  
The 17k upward revision to October and November series offset the headline miss.  Manufacturing add 17k jobs.  This is the most since January.  On average the U…
US Jobs Details Better than the Headline US Jobs Details Better than the Headline Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 06, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Consolidates Losses, Peso Firms while Yuan Reverses

January 06, 2017
The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses against the major currencies, giving it an apparently firmer tone today ahead of the monthly employment report.   Even though the Turkish lira continues to be sold to new record lows, the focus in the emerging markets in recent days has been the Mexican peso and Chinese yuan.  
Mexico's cent…
Dollar Consolidates Losses, Peso Firms while Yuan Reverses Dollar Consolidates Losses, Peso Firms while Yuan Reverses Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 06, 2017 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: CNBC's Power Lunch--China and Mexico

January 05, 2017
Two central banks were particularly active today.  Chinese officials appear to be engineering short squeeze that has lifted the yuan 1.2% over the past two sessions. While this does not sound like much, it is a record two-day move, for the still closely managed currency.  
In addition to formal and informal capital controls, Chinese officials have …
Cool Video: CNBC's Power Lunch--China and Mexico Cool Video:  CNBC's Power Lunch--China and Mexico Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2017 Rating: 5
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A Few Thoughts Ahead of the US Jobs Report

January 05, 2017
We have suggested the risk of disappointment with the US December jobs data.  There is not a tight fit on a monthly basis between the ADP estimate, and the first estimate of the BLS, the disappointment with the ADP estimate (153k vs. median estimate of 175k and an upwardly revised 215k in November) lends a modicum of support to our warning.  Simil…
A Few Thoughts Ahead of the US Jobs Report A Few Thoughts Ahead of the US Jobs Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Slide but Resilience Demonstrated while Yuan Squeezed Higher

January 05, 2017
There are two main developments. 
First, the high degree of uncertainty expressed in the FOMC minutes and the repeated references to the strong dollar spurred a wave of dollar selling. The dollar retreated in Asia, but European participants saw the pullback as a new buying opportunity. 
Second, Chinese officials have continued to squeeze liquidity i…
Dollar Slide but Resilience Demonstrated while Yuan Squeezed Higher Dollar Slide but Resilience Demonstrated while Yuan Squeezed Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 05, 2017 Rating: 5
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A Few Takeaways from the Latest IMF Reserve Figures

January 04, 2017
The IMF is the most authoritative source for reserve holdings of central banks.  It reports the data at the end of each quarter with a quarter lag.  At the end of last year, the IMF published the Q3 16 reserve figures.  As often is the case, the Q3 reserve figures get lost in the holiday shuffle. 
Nevertheless, there are a couple of interesting dev…
A Few Takeaways from the Latest IMF Reserve Figures A Few Takeaways from the Latest IMF Reserve Figures Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 04, 2017 Rating: 5
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