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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

January 02, 2017
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM FX was a mixed bag over the past week.  Dollar softness vs. the majors allowed some in EM to gain traction, with ZAR and PEN the biggest gainers since Christmas.  On the other hand, ARS TRY, and INR were the biggest losers.  With markets coming back to life, we expect EM to remain broadly under pressure as the sa…
Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 02, 2017 Rating: 5
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What You Should Know to Start the First Week of 2017

January 02, 2017
There are four things investors should know as the New Year begins. First, it has already begun with several PMI reports already reported.  Second, in the last two week of the December, the trends that dominated Q4 were retraced to some extent.  Third, there are several economic reports due from Europe in the coming days, but the highlight will be…
What You Should Know to Start the First Week of 2017 What You Should Know to Start the First Week of 2017 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 02, 2017 Rating: 5
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Canadian Dollar Bulls and Aussie Bears Add Exposure into Year-End

January 02, 2017
There were five significant position adjustments by speculators in the currency futures market in the last full reporting period of the year, ending on December 27.  That many participants cut positions is not really surprising.  It is where speculators added to exposure that may be more intriguing.
Of the five significant speculative adjustments,…
Canadian Dollar Bulls and Aussie Bears Add Exposure into Year-End Canadian Dollar Bulls and Aussie Bears Add Exposure into Year-End Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 02, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Correction Poised to Continue

January 01, 2017
The technical condition of the US dollar, which has been advancing through most of the Q4 16, has been deteriorating in our assessment. This led us to anticipate a consolidative or corrective phase. Although the holiday-thinned market conditions may have spurred exaggerated price moves, like the euro ahead of the weekend, it now appears that this …
Dollar Correction Poised to Continue Dollar Correction Poised to Continue Reviewed by Marc Chandler on January 01, 2017 Rating: 5
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Dollar Slips into Year End

December 30, 2016
In exceptionally thin conditions that characterize the year-end markets, a reportedly computer-generated order lifted the euro from about $1.05 to a little more than $1.0650 in a few minutes early in the Asian sessions. Before European markets opened the euro drifted back toward $1.05 where buying re-emerged.   Other European currencies, like the …
Dollar Slips into Year End Dollar Slips into Year End Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall

December 29, 2016
In thin holiday markets, a correction to the trends seen in Q4 has materialized. The US dollar is heavy.  Japanese and European equities are lower.  Bonds are firmer.  
Some reports try to link the moves to the unexpected weakness in the US pending home sales, but this is a stretch and merely seeks to construct a post hoc explanation for the year-e…
Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Double Feature on Bloomberg

December 28, 2016
I am finishing the year like I began it, on Bloomberg Television, talking about the dollar and Fed policy. Bloomberg has made two clips of my interview available.   
In the first clip (here), I discuss the dollar.   I reiterate my forecast for the the Dollar Index to head toward 120.00.  The consolidation between Q2 15 and end of Q3 16 appears to m…
Cool Video: Double Feature on Bloomberg Cool Video: Double Feature on Bloomberg Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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Short Note for Holiday Markets

December 28, 2016
Economic data: Japan stands out with industrial production in Nov rising 1.5%, the most in five months.  It was a little less than expected, but the expectations for Dec (2%) and Jan (2.2%) are constructive.  This seems to be a function of two things: stronger exports and a cyclical function with inventories falling and shipments rising.  It seems…
Short Note for Holiday Markets Short Note for Holiday Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Real Wages

December 27, 2016
This Great Graphic caught my eye.  It was tweeted by Ninja Economics.  Her point was about immigration.  German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell nearly 10.5%. 
She noted that Greece is the only developed country where real wages have colla…
Great Graphic: Real Wages Great Graphic: Real Wages Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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