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Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics

December 26, 2016
Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices.  Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like.   
However, political factors are more difficult for investors to integrate into their analysis. Therein lies the main challenge in the year …
Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 26, 2016 Rating: 5
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Emerging Market Preview for the Week Ahead

December 25, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM gained some limited traction as last week ended.  However, renewed concerns about China could limit this bounce as President Xi signaled the possibility that growth could fall below the government’s 6.5% target.  China PMI readings out this coming weekend will be the first snapshot of December.  Markets are likel…
Emerging Market Preview for the Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 25, 2016 Rating: 5
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Contract Roll may Have Elevated Position Adjustments

December 25, 2016
The expiry of the December currency futures may spurred more than normal speculative position adjusting.  The out-sized 27.9k contract jump in the speculative gross long Swiss franc futures position is a prime example.  It was more than enough to swing the net speculative position back to long (7.1k contracts).  If our understanding it correct, it…
Contract Roll may Have Elevated Position Adjustments Contract Roll may Have Elevated Position Adjustments Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 25, 2016 Rating: 5
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Assessment of the Dollar's Technical Condition Into the End of the Year

December 24, 2016
While few will be trading in the week between Christmas and New Years, we thought it might be helpful to review the dollar's technical condition. We make two overall points. 
First, although the dollar's rally strengthened and extended after the November US election, this leg up of the dollar's longer-term rally began at the end of Q3.�…
Assessment of the Dollar's Technical Condition Into the End of the Year Assessment of the Dollar's Technical Condition Into the End of the Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 24, 2016 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

December 23, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

China President Xi raised the possibility of sub-6.5% growth.Fitch moved the outlook on Indonesia’s BBB- rating from stable to positive.The Philippine central bank raised its 2017 inflation forecasts for 2017 and 2018.The Hungarian central bank lowered the cap on the amount commercial banks can keep at its 3-month …
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2016 Rating: 5
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Markets Edge into Holiday Weekend

December 23, 2016
Japanese markets were closed today. Activity in Europe is light, and the same is expected in North America today. Japanese markets will open on December 26, while the US and European markets re-open on Tuesday, December 27.  
Banks dominate the light news stream. Deutsche Bank agreed to a $7.2 bln settlement with the Department of Justice, while Cr…
Markets Edge into Holiday Weekend Markets Edge into Holiday Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 23, 2016 Rating: 5
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Mixed Dollar amid Light News as Investors Move to Sidelines

December 22, 2016
Turnover in the capital markets is falling, and the light new stream encourages further thinning of the holiday markets.   In broad strokes, equities are lower, bond yields higher and the dollar, mixed.  
The Swedish krona, which rallied yesterday after the Riksbank tapered its bond purchases, though refrained from cutting rates, is continuing to s…
Mixed Dollar amid Light News as Investors Move to Sidelines Mixed Dollar amid Light News as Investors Move to Sidelines Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 22, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Mixed in Thinning Activity, Dow 20,000 Watch Continues

December 21, 2016
The US dollar is narrowly mixed as the holiday markets make for light turnover. Global equity markets are not finding much encouragement from the new record highs by the Dow Jones Industrials.  

There have been a few developments to note. First, the Swedish krona is the strongest of the major currencies, rallying 0.7% against the dollar and reachin…
Dollar Mixed in Thinning Activity, Dow 20,000 Watch Continues Dollar Mixed in Thinning Activity, Dow 20,000 Watch Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 21, 2016 Rating: 5
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