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Yen and US Yields

December 05, 2016
Since the US election nearly a month ago, the Japanese yen has been the weakest performing major currency.  It has fallen 7.5% against the US dollar.  
At the risk of oversimplifying, there is one major drag on the yen, and that is rising US interest rates.  Consider that the correlation between the US 10-year generic yield and the dollar-yen excha…
Yen and US Yields Yen and US Yields Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 05, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Comes Back Bid, but Still Vulnerable to Corrective Pressures Dollar Comes Back Bid, but Still Vulnerable to Corrective Pressures Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 05, 2016 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

December 04, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
EM remains a mixed bag. Despite the negative connotations of a rising US rate environment, EM gathered an element of stability last week as the dollar consolidated its recent gains. Rising commodity prices are also helping EM at the margin, with RUB and COP amongst the best last week on higher oil and CLP on high…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets:  Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 04, 2016 Rating: 5
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Focus Shifts toward Europe

December 04, 2016
There were significant moves in interest rates and currencies last month. The drama was primarily spurred by the solidification of expectations of a Fed hike in the middle of this month and the stimulus promised by President-elect Trump.  
After years of falling budget deficits, the prospect for fiscal stimulus by the new President may have forced …
Focus Shifts toward Europe Focus Shifts toward Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 04, 2016 Rating: 5
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Speculators Net Short Yen in the Futures Market for the First Time in a Year

December 03, 2016
The US dollar rose more than 8.5% against the yen in November, and finally at the end of the month, speculators finally switched to a new short position for the first time this year.
In the CFTC reporting week ending November 28, speculators added 12.1k contracts to their gross short position, lifting it to 72.4k contracts. Speculators added a lit…
Speculators Net Short Yen in the Futures Market for the First Time in a Year Speculators Net Short Yen in the Futures Market for the First Time in a Year Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 03, 2016 Rating: 5
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Markets Lack Near-Term Conviction

December 03, 2016
Leaving aside the larger and longer-term views, market participants are split over the dollar's near-term outlook.  The steady beat of favorable US economic news will slow next week, just given the calendar.  
The focus shifts to the ECB meeting, where participants are wary of a hawkish ease.This would mean that even if the central bank extends…
Markets Lack Near-Term Conviction Markets Lack Near-Term Conviction Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 03, 2016 Rating: 5
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Mixed Jobs Report, but Unlikely to Deter Expectations for Fed Hike

December 02, 2016
The US dollar has slipped lower in response to the jobs data, but quickly recovered.   The details are mixed, but is unlikely to change views on the outlook for Fed policy.  
The headline job creation was in line with expectations at 178k.  Job growth of the back two months were shaved by 2k, concentrated in October.  The unemployment rate dropped …
Mixed Jobs Report, but Unlikely to Deter Expectations for Fed Hike Mixed Jobs Report, but Unlikely to Deter Expectations for Fed Hike Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 02, 2016 Rating: 5
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