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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

November 27, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM ended last week on a somewhat firmer note, though we note divergences remain in place.  For the week, ZAR and KRW performed the best while TRY and BRL were the worst.  US jobs data Friday will draw some attention, though a December Fed rate hike is pretty much fully priced in.  
China reports November PMI readings…
Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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Shifting Portfolio Preferences Continue to Drive Capital Markets

November 27, 2016
There are powerful moves underway in the capital markets. Some are new, and others have accelerated in recent weeks.  The moves have stretched technical readings, but key drivers not only remain intact but may strengthen over the next week.  
We argue that there are two main forces driving the shifting portfolio allocations.The first emanates from …
Shifting Portfolio Preferences Continue to Drive Capital Markets Shifting Portfolio Preferences Continue to Drive Capital Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Correction may be at Hand, but likely Brief and Shallow

November 26, 2016
After a three-week rally, the dollar bulls finally showed signs of tiring ahead of the weekend. Technical indicators have begun rolling over from over-extended conditions. Nevertheless, the dollar's pullback is limited in time to the first part of the week ahead, and in scope to only modest retracement targets ahead of the US employment data, …
Dollar Correction may be at Hand, but likely Brief and Shallow Dollar Correction may be at Hand, but likely Brief and Shallow Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 26, 2016 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

November 25, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) Philippine President Duterte will reportedly ask central bank. Governor Tetangco to stay on for a third term.South Africa’s government has proposed a national minimum wage.Fitch moved the outlook on South Africa’s BBB- from stable to negative.Turkey’s central bank surprised markets with a 50 bp hike in its benchmark…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has  Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2016 Rating: 5
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Corrective Forces Emerge, but Underlying Trend is Evident

November 25, 2016
The US dollar's recent gains are being trimmed today, and it is down against all the major currencies. Many emerging market currencies, including the Turkish lira, Indian rupee, and Hungarian forint are firmer today.  
The dollar's losses are minor, and the forces that drove it higher remain intact. One of the most important of these driver…
Corrective Forces Emerge, but Underlying Trend is Evident Corrective Forces Emerge, but Underlying Trend is Evident Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2016 Rating: 5
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Short Summary on US Thanksgiving

November 24, 2016
While US markets were closed for the celebration of Thanksgiving, the underlying trends remained intact. Here is a summary of several developments.
The euro edged to a new low, a little below $1.0520 before stabilizing between $1.0540-$1.0580 in the European afternoon.  The low is a new 20-month low. The long awaited test on parity is approached, b…
Short Summary on US Thanksgiving Short Summary on US Thanksgiving Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 24, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Sees Flat Consolidation while the Equity Advance Fizzles in Europe

November 23, 2016
The US dollar is trading inside yesterday's ranges against the euro and yen.  The dollar's tone matches the consolidation in the debt market ahead of today's slew of US data and tomorrow's holiday.  Tokyo markets were on holiday.  
Sterling is trading heavily. Its half-cent loss (0.4%) is the biggest decline among the majors today. …
Dollar Sees Flat Consolidation while the Equity Advance Fizzles in Europe Dollar Sees Flat Consolidation while the Equity Advance Fizzles in Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2016 Rating: 5
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Bonds and Stocks Rally, Leaving Greenback to Meander

November 22, 2016
The US dollar entered a consolidative phase yesterday, and this carried into today's activity.While the foreign exchange market is sidelined as the two-week trend slows, the stocks and bonds are posting strong gains today.  Equities are being led by energy and materials, as oil and industrial metals continue to advance.  Bond are recovering fr…
Bonds and Stocks Rally, Leaving Greenback to Meander Bonds and Stocks Rally, Leaving Greenback to Meander Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 22, 2016 Rating: 5
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Flattish Consolidation Hides Dollar Strength

November 21, 2016
The euro is trying to snap a ten-day losing streak.  Its bounce today has stopped a little shy of the five-day moving average that is found near $1.0650.  It has not traded above this short-term moving average since the November 9.
The news over the weekend is primarily political in nature. Sarkozy is going to retire (again) after taking a drubbing…
Flattish Consolidation Hides Dollar Strength Flattish Consolidation Hides Dollar Strength Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 21, 2016 Rating: 5
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