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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

October 30, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

EM ended the week on a soft note, as markets were taken off guard by news that the FBI was reopening its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s emails.  Risk off trading hit MXN particularly hard.  FOMC meeting this week should be a non-event, but markets are likely to remain volatile ahead of the November 8 elections …
Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead Emerging Market Preview:  Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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Six Thumbnail Sketches of This Week's Dollar Drivers

October 30, 2016
The week ahead features four central bank meetings, the PMIs that begin the monthly cycle of high frequency data, and the US employment report.Here was sketch out the main impulses from the US, EMU, UK, Japan, Canada, and Australia.  
US: There are three drivers: politics, FOMC meeting, and the employment report.
First, as we saw before the weekend,…
Six Thumbnail Sketches of This Week's Dollar Drivers Six Thumbnail Sketches of This Week's Dollar Drivers Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 30, 2016 Rating: 5
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Speculators Make Concerted Effort to Pick Bottom in Sterling

October 29, 2016
Speculators in the futures market increased their gross long sterling position by nearly 20% to 63.6k contracts (+11k) in the reporting week ending October 25.  In mid-September the gross long position stood at 40.4k contracts.  
Not everyone is convinced that sterling will bounce.  The bears extended their gross short sterling position by 3.4k con…
Speculators Make Concerted Effort to Pick Bottom in Sterling Speculators Make Concerted Effort to Pick Bottom in Sterling Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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October Surprise Pushes Open Door

October 29, 2016
The US dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week, but the upside momentum appeared to be dissipating, even before the FBI's announcement about new Clinton emails.   There are a few exceptions like the greenback's performance against the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona. The dollar made new multi-month highs…
October Surprise Pushes Open Door October Surprise Pushes Open Door Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 29, 2016 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

October 28, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

Chinese President Xi has strengthened his grip on power.
Mozambique said it is in “debt distress” and hired advisors for a debt restructuring.
South Africa revised its macro forecasts in the Finance Ministry’s Medium-Term Budget Program.
Chile’s ruling center-left coalition lost municipal elections.


In the EM equity …
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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EC Pushes Back on (8) Draft Budgets

October 28, 2016
Long before the UK referendum, many argued that monetary union was undermining the European Union. Many had expected Greece to be forced out not once but twice.
There is a cottage industry of books forecasting the demise of EMU.  Johan Van Overtveldt, the former Finance Minister of Belgium, penned "End of the Euro" in 2011 and its capture…
EC Pushes Back on (8) Draft Budgets EC Pushes Back on (8) Draft Budgets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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