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Fasten Your Seat Belts: Tomorrow Promises to be Tumultuous Fasten Your Seat Belts:  Tomorrow Promises to be Tumultuous Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Pulls Back Further Post-FOMC

July 28, 2016
After reversing lower yesterday after the FOMC statement, the US dollar has continued to move lower against the major currencies, save sterling. While the market is not fully confident of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, indicative pricing in the derivative markets suggest a UK rate cut has been fully discounted (and a new asset purcha…
Dollar Pulls Back Further Post-FOMC Dollar Pulls Back Further Post-FOMC Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 28, 2016 Rating: 5
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FOMC says What it Had To, No More or Less

July 27, 2016
The Federal Reserve met market expectations fully.  It upgraded its assessment of the economy, recognized that the near-term risks had diminished, and remained committed to normalizing monetary policy.    There was one dissent from the steady stance, and it the KC Fed President had already tipped her hand. 
There was little direct guidance about t…
FOMC says What it Had To, No More or Less FOMC says What it Had To, No More or Less Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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Oil and Economy Pull the Canadian Dollar Lower

July 27, 2016
Our informal and simple model for the Canadian dollar has three variables.  Oil, interest rates, and general risk environment.  Over time, the coefficient of the variables can and do change.  
Of the three variables, the general risk environment is the most supportive of the Canadian dollar.   Between the BOJ and ECB more than $150 bln a month of c…
Oil and Economy Pull the Canadian Dollar Lower Oil and Economy Pull the Canadian Dollar Lower Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: How the US Recovery Stacks Up

July 27, 2016
This Great Graphic was tweeted Alan Kruger (@Alan_Kruger). Drawing on official data and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker for Q2 GDP (2.4%), it shows the current business cycle in the context of a four earlier cycles.
Until now the recovery from the Great Financial Crisis was the weakest from the post-WWII last four contractions.  However, as Kr…
Great Graphic: How the US Recovery Stacks Up Great Graphic:  How the US Recovery Stacks Up Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 27, 2016 Rating: 5
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