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Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead

July 04, 2016
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
EM and risk recovered nicely from the Brexit turmoil last week.  Yet we think markets are getting too carried away with the "low rates forever" theme and are likely underestimating the capability of the Fed to tighten before 2018.  This Friday, the June jobs data could spark a shift in sentiment with a str…
Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 04, 2016 Rating: 5
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If No Article 50 Soon, What are the Fundamental Drivers?

July 03, 2016
There have been two developments that are shaping investment climate. The first was the dramatic rally in equity markets last week, with many recovering nearly all that was lost on the Brexit wobble.  The second was clear indications that the UK will not begin the formal divorce proceedings in the coming months.  
That had seemed likely when Camero…
If No Article 50 Soon, What are the Fundamental Drivers? If No Article 50 Soon, What are the Fundamental Drivers? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 03, 2016 Rating: 5
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Bulls and Bears Saw Speculative Opportunity in Euros around UK Referendum

July 02, 2016
In the sessions before and after the UK referendum speculators in the currency futures did three things.First, they generally reduced exposure.  This means gross longs and short positions were reduced.  Of the 16 gross speculative currency futures positions we track, 12 fell. 
Second, speculators were divided about what to do with the euro.The bull…
Bulls and Bears Saw Speculative Opportunity in Euros around UK Referendum Bulls and Bears Saw Speculative Opportunity in Euros around UK Referendum Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2016 Rating: 5
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Dollar Consolidation may Continue until Jobs Data

July 02, 2016
The US dollar turned in a mixed performance in the week after the UK decision to leave the EU. There was an acute market reaction for a couple of days, but the disruption to the financial system was not major. Officials and investors feared worse. The initial line of defense, central bank swap lines were barely used. The Bank of Japan was the only…
Dollar Consolidation may Continue until Jobs Data Dollar Consolidation may Continue until Jobs Data Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 02, 2016 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

July 01, 2016
Indonesia’s parliament approved a tax amnesty billKorea announced KRW20 trln ($17 bln) in fiscal stimulusCzech President Zeman said a referendum on EU and NATO membership should be heldRussia ended its tourism ban to TurkeyBrazil’s central bank is sending hawkish signalsBanxico hiked rates by a larger than expected 50 bp to 4.25%
In the EM equity s…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2016 Rating: 5
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Don't Expect Bank of England to Wait, Easing may Begin Next Week

July 01, 2016
Investors are debating over whether the Bank of England eases policy at the July 14 MPC meeting or waits until August Quarterly Inflation Report when new post-Brexit forecasts will be ready.  There are many dimensions to monetary policy, and the first move could come next week.  
Of the various parts of the UK body politic, the Bank of England appe…
Don't Expect Bank of England to Wait, Easing may Begin Next Week Don't Expect Bank of England to Wait, Easing may Begin Next Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2016 Rating: 5
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Markets Head Quietly into the Weekend

July 01, 2016
The US dollar is little changed ahead of what will likely be a thin North American session due to the US holiday on Monday.  The Australian and New Zealand dollars are attracting flows, ostensibly as a place to park funds, even though tomorrow's Australian election looks a dead heat.    
Falling yields seem to be offsetting the rise in equities…
Markets Head Quietly into the Weekend Markets Head Quietly into the Weekend Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 01, 2016 Rating: 5
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