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Significant Position Adjustment Ahead of FOMC Meeting

December 19, 2015
Speculative position adjustments in the currency futures were minimal in the immediate aftermath of the ECB's December 3 meeting and US employment data the following day.However, activity dramatically increased in the days ahead of the FOMC meeting on December 16.  
In most Commitment of Traders reports the gross position adjustment of 10k or m…
Significant Position Adjustment Ahead of FOMC Meeting Significant Position Adjustment Ahead of FOMC Meeting Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 19, 2015 Rating: 5
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Near-Term Dollar Outlook: May the Force be With You

December 19, 2015
The dollar rose against all the major currencies over the past week. The divergence meme we have emphasized has continued to unfold.  The ECB eased policy at the start of the month.  Less than 48 hours after the Fed hiked rates, the BOJ tweaked its asset purchase program to sustain it. 
Holiday-thin markets make for more treacherous conditions than…
Near-Term Dollar Outlook: May the Force be With You Near-Term Dollar Outlook: May the Force be With You Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 19, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

December 18, 2015
1) Argentina eliminated capital controls and allowed the peso to float
2) Argentina also eliminated export taxes on agricultural goods that include beef, wheat, and corn
3) Fitch joined S&P in cutting Brazil to sub-investment grade BB+ with a negative outlook
4) Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled that impeachment proceedings can move forward
5) Ba…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets: What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 18, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Visualizing the Refugee/Asylum Seekers in Europe

December 18, 2015
The Greek crisis that dominated the European discussion in the first half of the year was barely ending when attention turned to the refugee problem.   While it often seemed that all of Europe was united against Greece, the refugee problem is significantly more divisive, though southern Europe, especially Italy and Greece are the front lines.  
In …
Great Graphic: Visualizing the Refugee/Asylum Seekers in Europe Great Graphic: Visualizing the Refugee/Asylum Seekers in Europe Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 18, 2015 Rating: 5
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BOJ Surprises, but Substance Minor

December 18, 2015
The Bank of Japan was the fourth major central bank to meet this week.  Sweden and Norway kept policy unchanged.  The Fed hiked.  The BOJ was not expected to do anything.  Governor Kuroda surprised the market with largely operational tweaks to what Japan calls Qualitative and Quantitative Easing.  Initially, and perhaps with the help of headline r…
BOJ Surprises, but Substance Minor BOJ Surprises, but Substance Minor Reviewed by Marc Chandler on December 18, 2015 Rating: 5
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