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Dollar Rides High into Month-End

November 27, 2015
The US dollar is firm against the major currencies and nearly all the emerging market currencies as well to close out the week (and month) Participants are clearly focused on next week's events, and in particular, the prospect of additional easing measures by the ECB.  Also, next week's speeches by Yellen and the monthly jobs report is exp…
Dollar Rides High into Month-End Dollar Rides High into Month-End Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 27, 2015 Rating: 5
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Table is Set, Dollar Consolidates

November 26, 2015
The US dollar remains firm, even if it has eased from its seven-month high against the euro and five-year high against the Swiss franc recorded yesterday.  The US October personal consumption expenditure was disappointing, and prompted some downward revision to Q4 GDP forecasts. The Atlanta Fed estimates that Q4 GDP is tracking 1.8% rather than 2.…
Table is Set, Dollar Consolidates Table is Set,  Dollar Consolidates Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 26, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US 2-Year Premium over Japan and Germany

November 25, 2015
This Great Graphic was composed on Bloomberg.  It shows two time series.  The yellow line shows the premium the US pays over Germany for two-year money.  The white line shows the premium the US pays over Japan for two-year money.  
The premiums have risen sharply since mid-October and today are at new multi-year highs.  In the middle of October the…
Great Graphic: US 2-Year Premium over Japan and Germany Great Graphic:  US 2-Year Premium over Japan and Germany Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2015 Rating: 5
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Discount Rate Follow-Up: And Then There were Nine

November 25, 2015
On Monday, the Federal Reserve met to discuss the discount rate.  There has been a steady increase in the number of regional Federal Reserve presidents requesting an increase in the discount rate.  The minutes of the October 26 meeting were reported yesterday.
The meeting was held before the FOMC met on October 27-28. At that meeting, nine of the 1…
Discount Rate Follow-Up: And Then There were Nine Discount Rate Follow-Up:  And Then There were Nine Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2015 Rating: 5
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Euro Bears Aren't Hibernating

November 25, 2015
The divergence of monetary policy is discounted, they argued. Ahead of next week's big events, which include the IMF's SDR decision, the ECB meeting, OPEC meeting, and the US jobs data, the euro, against which speculators have amassed a large short position, just shy of a record,  were supposed to be content.
The euro did gain almost a cent…
Euro Bears Aren't Hibernating Euro Bears Aren't Hibernating Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 25, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Dollar Recoups January Loss Against the Swiss Franc

November 24, 2015
The US dollar recorded its high for the year against the Swiss franc on January 14 near CHF1.0240.  It closed that day a little below CHF1.0190.  The next day the Swiss National Bank surprised the world by lifting its cap against the euro.  The dollar plunged to nearly CHF0.7400.  
It has taken increased prospects of a Fed rate hike, negative 75 b…
Great Graphic: Dollar Recoups January Loss Against the Swiss Franc Great Graphic:  Dollar Recoups January Loss Against the Swiss Franc Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 24, 2015 Rating: 5
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Why Portuguese Politics Matter

November 24, 2015
A NATO country has shot down a Russian plane.  The refugee influx is threatening to unravel the Schengen Treaty of free movement.    Germany's Merkel celebrated her tenth anniversary as Chancellor this past weekend, but she faces one of the most serious challenges of her tenure.   
Portugal accounts for less than 2% of the eurozone GDP.  We arg…
Why Portuguese Politics Matter Why Portuguese Politics Matter Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 24, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Softens, Consolidation Phase Continues

November 24, 2015
The US dollar is trading choppily but with a distinct softer bias.  The economic news has been limited, and the apparent downing of a Russian plane by Turkey caused a flurry of activity, with Turkish assets coming under initial pressure which has abated somewhat.  
The euro briefly dipped below $1.06 yesterday for new seven-month lows, but there w…
Dollar Softens, Consolidation Phase Continues Dollar Softens, Consolidation Phase Continues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 24, 2015 Rating: 5
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