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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

November 23, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

EM starts the week on an uncertain footing. Commodity prices were off sharply until comments by Saudi Arabia lifted them, reversing the trend in commodity-sensitive assets. The dollar is also back on the rise, pressuring EM FX even as a December FED hike is now just about fully priced in. In South …
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar-Boc Slumps with Commodities, Greenback Remains Bid

November 23, 2015
The dollar-bloc currencies and the Norwegian krone were the strongest major currencies last week but are leading the downside today.  The slump in commodity prices is taking a toll.  WTI is off by nearly 3%.  Copper is off about half as much, and gold is off about half as much as copper.   More broadly, the US dollar is firm across the board.  
Lar…
Dollar-Boc Slumps with Commodities, Greenback Remains Bid Dollar-Boc Slumps with Commodities, Greenback Remains Bid Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 23, 2015 Rating: 5
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Anticipating December in November: When Cause Follows Effect

November 22, 2015
Surveys show that around 90% of primary dealers and economists expect the Fed to raise interest rates in the middle of December.Over the past month, the two-year US note yield has risen by nearly 37 bp to 91 bp.  
The implied yield of the December Fed funds futures contract has risen by 4.5 bp to 21.5 bp at the close before the weekend.It is the hi…
Anticipating December in November: When Cause Follows Effect Anticipating December in November: When Cause Follows Effect Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 22, 2015 Rating: 5
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Observations from the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market

November 21, 2015
1.  The continued build of short currency futures positions characterizes the changes in the speculative positioning.  All the currency futures we track saw an increase in gross short positions. This is what drove the large net short positions.  One thing this means is that late shorts are in weak hands, and as we have seen in the Australian dolla…
Observations from the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market Observations from the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 21, 2015 Rating: 5
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Chop City, but Dollar Express Still on Track, Even if Slowly

November 21, 2015
The US dollar tended to broadly consolidate its recent gains over the past week. Data and officials mostly confirmed what most investors had already anticipated.  The Federal Reserve is most likely to hike rates in the middle of December. The ECB will most likely ease policy further just shy of two weeks before the Fed meets.  The Bank of Japan is…
Chop City, but Dollar Express Still on Track, Even if Slowly Chop City, but Dollar Express Still on Track, Even if Slowly Reviewed by Marc Chandler on November 21, 2015 Rating: 5
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