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Double-D as in Draghi`s Day

October 22, 2015
The main event today is the ECB meeting.  Many observers expect a dovish tilt as Draghi prepares to expand QE in December.  A Bloomberg survey conducted last week found that 80% of economists expect the ECB to eventually do so, with 56% expecting it at the December 3 meeting.  The survey found 86% expect a move by the end of Q1 2016.  Every centra…
Double-D as in Draghi`s Day Double-D as in Draghi`s Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 22, 2015 Rating: 5
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A Few Brief Thoughts

October 21, 2015
(I am in Japan until the end  of the week before going to Hong Kong and China)

1.  Japan's trade balance was worse than expected in September.  It posted a JPY114. bln deficit.  A ｓmall surplus was expected.  Exports rose a mere 0.6% compared with expectations for a 3.8% increase.  In volume terms, exports have fallen nearly 4%.   It is hard t…
A Few Brief Thoughts A Few Brief Thoughts Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 21, 2015 Rating: 5
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Don`t Expect the BOJ to Ease Next Week

October 20, 2015
(In Tokyo at the start of this extended business trip.  Updates may be less regular but hopefully just as provocative)

I was never one that anticipated the BOJ to step up its unorthodox easing of monetary policy next week.   Talking with officials here I have become even more convinced that there is no strong sense of urgency to act.  

There are thr…
Don`t Expect the BOJ to Ease Next Week Don`t Expect the BOJ to Ease Next Week Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 20, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

October 19, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)

The week starts off subdued for EM, but selling pressures continue for the most part.  The dollar is mixed against majors and with the decision about the timing of the first Fed hike still up in the air, it’s hard to see how investors will commit a lot of capital into year end.  The softer tone in co…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 19, 2015 Rating: 5
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Focus Shifts Away from the US

October 18, 2015
(Updates will be less regular during my business trip to Asia)

From the Federal Reserve's reluctance to raise interest rates in September, through the soft employment and retail sales report, and two Fed Governors arguing against a rate hike this year, the pendulum of expectations as swung hard.   The implied yield of the Fed funds futures doe…
Focus Shifts Away from the US Focus Shifts Away from the US Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 18, 2015 Rating: 5
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