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Observations from the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market

October 18, 2015
We look at the speculative positioning in the futures market as a proxy for short-term trend and momentum participants. We are interested in gross positioning more than net because it reveals more insight into exposures.  It is also more true to our experience that differentiates buyingto go long and buying to cover shorts, for example.  
Gross pos…
Observations from the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market Observations from the Speculative Positioning in the Futures Market Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 18, 2015 Rating: 5
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Will USD's Recovery in the Second Half of Last Week be Sustained?

October 17, 2015
(In Asia on an extended business trip. Updates will be less regular for the next few weeks.)
The US dollar turned in a mixed performance last week.  It recovered in the second half of the week against the euro and yen.  It was an unusual week in that the New Zealand dollar was the strongest of the major currencies, gaining 1.8% against the US dolla…
Will USD's Recovery in the Second Half of Last Week be Sustained? Will USD's Recovery in the Second Half of Last Week be Sustained? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 17, 2015 Rating: 5
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Thoughts Before Extended Business Trip

October 15, 2015
I leave today for a business trip to Tokyo, Hong Kong and Beijing for the better part of the next three weeks. Updates to the blog will be more sporadic, and with a different rhythm given the time zone. Please bear with me.
Given this, it may be particularly helpful to summarize my views:
1.  I remain a dollar bull on a medium and longer-term basi…
Thoughts Before Extended Business Trip Thoughts Before Extended Business Trip Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 15, 2015 Rating: 5
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Canada Goes to the Polls on Monday October 19

October 14, 2015
Canada's national election is slated for Monday.  The latest opinion polls show a virtual dead heat between the governing Conservatives and Liberals. 
Two main issues dominate.  The first is the economy.  Canada is struggling.  Although the contraction period is over, growth is fragile.  The economy contracted for the first five months of the y…
Canada Goes to the Polls on Monday October 19 Canada Goes to the Polls on Monday October 19 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2015 Rating: 5
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Preliminary Thoughts on Japan Post

October 14, 2015
Japan is moving toward its largest privatization in two decades.  It is selling Japan Post.  It will consist of a holding company, a bank, and an insurance company.  It will likely raise the equivalent of $10-$12 bln.  
There will be 495 mln shares of the holding company that will be sold, 412 mln shares of the bank and 66 mln shares of the insurer…
Preliminary Thoughts on Japan Post Preliminary Thoughts on Japan Post Reviewed by Marc Chandler on October 14, 2015 Rating: 5
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