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Why I Don't Use Bloomberg's WIRP Function

September 28, 2015
Bloomberg created a function that claims to give the odds of a Fed move by interpolating from the Fed funds futures and options contracts. It is widely used, but I remain a skeptic.
It is based on assumptions that are not particularly transparent. These are particularly important given that unlike past cycles, the Federal Reserve has adopted a tar…
Why I Don't Use Bloomberg's WIRP Function Why I Don't Use Bloomberg's WIRP Function Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead

September 28, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
In a still familiar refrain, EM assets are starting the week off on a soft note.  The global backdrop remains negative, with Yellen’s speech bringing Fed lift-off back into focus.  US jobs data this Friday should support the notion of lift-off by year-end.  Chinese data is likely to remain soft, whil…
Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead Emerging Markets: Preview for the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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Abenomics 2.0

September 28, 2015
After arguably squandering his limited political capital on pursuing a controversial agenda for an expanded role for the military and re-starting nuclear plans, Japan's Prime Minister has turned his attention back to the economy.   He unveiled Abenomics 2.0.  
Recall that Abenomics was the traditional LDP economic policy but ramped up.  The LDP…
Abenomics 2.0 Abenomics 2.0 Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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Sterling and Yen Edge Higher

September 28, 2015
Sterling and the yen are gaining against the dollar while the other major currencies are little changed, and emerging currencies are mixed.  Sterling's has gained about 0.35%, mostly in the European morning, and appears largely driven by demand on the crosses, especially the euro.   It is still within the pre-weekend ranges against the US doll…
Sterling and Yen Edge Higher Sterling and Yen Edge Higher Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 28, 2015 Rating: 5
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Divergence Drivers and the Dollar

September 27, 2015
The main thrust of our bullish US dollar outlook is the divergence in monetary policy trajectories.We do not think the divergence has peaked and anticipate it to persist through next year and into 2017.   
Since the Federal Reserve finished QE3, the divergence has been driven by easing of policy by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, a…
Divergence Drivers and the Dollar Divergence Drivers and the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 27, 2015 Rating: 5
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