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Great Graphic: Offshore Yuan Converges with Onshore Yuan

September 10, 2015
When China engineered a mini-devaluation of the yuan in August, it succeeded in closing the prior gap between the fix (central reference rate) and the spot onshore yuan.  One of the prices of doing so, however, was the widening of the gap between the onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) yuan.  
This widening caused stress on those global investors who…
Great Graphic: Offshore Yuan Converges with Onshore Yuan Great Graphic:     Offshore Yuan Converges with Onshore Yuan Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 10, 2015 Rating: 5
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Ten Bullets on What is Shaping Today's Markets

September 10, 2015
1.  RBNZ cut rates 25 bp to 2.75%.  It was already discounted, but what punished the kiwi was the intimation by Wheeler of scope for additional rate cuts.  Another cut looks likely by the end of the year.   The New Zealand dollar is off by nearly 2%, fully retracing the past two days of gains.  Stops thought to lie below $0.6240.   There is a larg…
Ten Bullets on What is Shaping Today's Markets Ten Bullets on What is Shaping Today's Markets Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 10, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bid, but Antipodeans Firm

September 09, 2015
There are three key developments today. After seemingly spending recent months pursuing a controversial political agenda, Japan's Abe has returned his attention to the economy to propose corporate tax cuts. This lifted the Nikkei a stunning 7.7%.  The UK industrial output and trade figures disappointed. Ideas a month ago that the BOE could …
Dollar Bid, but Antipodeans Firm Dollar Bid, but Antipodeans Firm Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 09, 2015 Rating: 5
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Ten Things that Happened on the US Labor Day

September 07, 2015
(commentary will be posted less regularly over the next two weeks as business takes me to Europe)
1.  China's reserves fell by almost $94 bln in August.   This was a little more than the Bloomberg consensus but not as large as the $200 bln some had suggested.   Valuation considerations, which are often ignored in discussions of Chinese reserves…
Ten Things that Happened on the US Labor Day Ten Things that Happened on the US Labor Day Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 07, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

September 07, 2015
(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)

In a familiar refrain, EM assets are starting off the week on a soft note, with markets picking up where the left off on Friday. With China markets reopening after a two-day holiday, the Shanghai dropped -2.5% and has fed into wider EM equity losses. MSCI EM is down two straight days and five of the past six. Th…
Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead Emerging Markets:  Preview of the Week Ahead Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 07, 2015 Rating: 5
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Known Unknowns and the Dollar

September 06, 2015
There are three, and arguably interrelated, known unknowns that are seemingly on everyone's mind.  
First is the decline in global equity markets. Is thissimplya long overdue correction? Wasn't August 24 some sort of capitulation?  Is this a re-test of those extremes, which is not particularly unusual, or is it the start of a new leg down?
S…
Known Unknowns and the Dollar Known Unknowns and the Dollar Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 06, 2015 Rating: 5
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Dollar Bulls Reassert Themselves, but...

September 05, 2015
The US dollar gained against most of the major currencies last week. A notable exception was the Japanese yen. Steep equity losses and drop in bond yields provided the yen with the customary fillip.
The various economic reports, including the August jobs data and the volatility of the stock market, left Fed expectations unchanged. The September Fed…
Dollar Bulls Reassert Themselves, but... Dollar Bulls Reassert Themselves, but... Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 05, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: DAX Poised to Gap Lower on Monday

September 04, 2015
This Great Graphic is a weekly bar chart of the German DAX.  It was created on Bloomberg, and tracks a three-point trend line going back to 2011.  The recent sell-off marks the third point.  
Like other equity markets, it bounced off the August 24 exaggerated sell-off.  However, this week it appears to have put in a double top near 10,380.  A break…
Great Graphic: DAX Poised to Gap Lower on Monday Great Graphic:  DAX Poised to Gap Lower on Monday Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 04, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

September 04, 2015
(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot)
1) Reports suggest the PBOC will impose a 20% reserve requirement on financial institutions trading FX forwards  2) The HKMA had to intervene this week at the strong side (7.75) of the HKD peg 3) Swiss authorities are getting involved in the 1MDB scandal in Malaysia 4) Brazil’s government will submit bu…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 04, 2015 Rating: 5
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