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Headline Disappoints but Doesn't Conceal Constructive US Jobs Report

September 04, 2015
Cognizant that the initial estimate of August nonfarm payrolls habitually disappoints, market participants, and presumably policymakers will look past the low 173k increase, and instead focus on the favorable internals.   These include a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1%, which is into the band the Fed regards a full employment.  In addition t…
Headline Disappoints but Doesn't Conceal Constructive US Jobs Report Headline Disappoints but Doesn't Conceal Constructive US Jobs Report Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 04, 2015 Rating: 5
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Equities Slump, Focus Shifts from ECB to US Jobs

September 04, 2015
The dovish signals from the ECB failed to offer lasting support for the global capital markets.  Asia shares slumped, with the Nikkei falling to new lows since February and taking out the psychologically important 17k level.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1%. European bourses are off about 1.75%, with all major industry group under pressures, l…
Equities Slump, Focus Shifts from ECB to US Jobs Equities Slump, Focus Shifts from ECB to US Jobs Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 04, 2015 Rating: 5
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Other Developments that Shouldn't be Lost in Focus on ECB

September 03, 2015
The ECB is clearly the driver of the day, spurring a quick drubbing of the euro, pressing bond yields lower and giving a fillip to equities.  The lower US yields and unwind of long euro cross positions pushed the greenback below JPY120, though it has resurfaced above there.   There is scope for the dollar to rise back toward JPY120.50-70.  
Meanwhi…
Other Developments that Shouldn't be Lost in Focus on ECB Other Developments that Shouldn't be Lost in Focus on ECB Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2015 Rating: 5
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Euro Spanked As ECB cuts Forecasts and Warns of Downside Risks

September 03, 2015
The euro has sold off a cent in the immediate reaction to ECB President Draghi's press conference.  A break of $1.11 would target $1.1025, though the target is unlikely to be seen ahead of tomorrow's US employment report.    
There are three key take ways from Draghi's comments.  First, the ECB has raised the ceiling of sovereign bond o…
Euro Spanked As ECB cuts Forecasts and Warns of Downside Risks Euro Spanked As ECB cuts Forecasts and Warns of Downside Risks Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2015 Rating: 5
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China Holiday Offers Markets a Reprieve, Waiting for Draghi

September 03, 2015
The closure of Chinese markets today has removed an agitator and contributed to the calmer tone in the global capital markets.. Sweden's Riksbank's decision to policy on hold has sent the krona up nearly 1% against the US dollar.  It is the big mover.  
On the downside, the Australian dollar is leading the way after a unexpected contraction…
China Holiday Offers Markets a Reprieve, Waiting for Draghi China Holiday Offers Markets a Reprieve, Waiting for Draghi Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 03, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: PBOC Currency Policy from a Different Angle

September 02, 2015
There is much confusion over China's currency policy.  On August 11, the PBOC seemed to signal a desire for a somewhat weaker currency.  The dollar rose by nearly 4% in a two-day move. 
However, after trading broadly sideways for a few sessions, the dollar weakened.  Ahead of the long holiday weekend in China, the dollar slipped to its lowest l…
Great Graphic: PBOC Currency Policy from a Different Angle Great Graphic:  PBOC Currency Policy from a Different Angle Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Calmer Markets but Sense of Foreboding still Strong

September 02, 2015
The capital markets are quieter today.  Equities remain heavy, but losses are comparatively mild.  Core bond yields are slightly softer.  The US dollar is firmer against the major and most emerging market currencies.  
The news stream is light and the main focus before the ECB meeting tomorrow is the US ADP employment estimate.  A 200k increase is …
Calmer Markets but Sense of Foreboding still Strong Calmer Markets but Sense of Foreboding still Strong Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 02, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: US-German 2-Year Spread and the Euro Revisited

September 01, 2015
The euro shot above its 200-day moving average last week for the first time since May 2014.  By the end of the last week it was back below it.  It is found just below $1.13 today, and was surpassed earlier today.  
There are many factors that investors are wrestling.  Some are technical like market positioning. Some of macroeconomic in nature, like…
Great Graphic: US-German 2-Year Spread and the Euro Revisited Great Graphic:  US-German 2-Year Spread and the Euro Revisited Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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Back to Crisis Mode

September 01, 2015
The semblance of stability that had seemed to return to the global capital markets has ended abruptly.  Nearly every major country that has reported August manufacturing PMI except Germany, has disappointed.  China's manufacturing PMI hit a three year low (49.7 vs 50.0 in July).  Global equities have slid, and a sharply lower opening is antici…
Back to Crisis Mode Back to Crisis Mode Reviewed by Marc Chandler on September 01, 2015 Rating: 5
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