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Market Rout Continues, North American Leadership Awaited

August 24, 2015
The global meltdown in stocks and commodities has continued. China failed to stem the tide by cutting reserve requirements (or interest rates) as many had expected.  US 10-year yield had fallen below the 2.0% threshold but is back above it before the start of the North American session.  European equity markets mostly gapped lower.  The gaps have …
Market Rout Continues, North American Leadership Awaited Market Rout Continues, North American Leadership Awaited Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 24, 2015 Rating: 5
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In Hasty Judgments and Exaggerations Lie Investment Opportunities

August 23, 2015
China's Premier Zhou Enlai was asked in 1972 about the political consequence of the French Revolution, and he famously quipped it was too early to say.Even if, as historians recognize, Zhou was referring to the unrest in 1968 rather than the 1789-1799 revolution, it offers insight that is too valuable to let the facts distort.  
Indeed, that in…
In Hasty Judgments and Exaggerations Lie Investment Opportunities In Hasty Judgments and Exaggerations Lie Investment Opportunities Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 23, 2015 Rating: 5
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Short Squeeze Lifts Euro and Yen, More to Come?

August 22, 2015
It was a difficult week for the dollar, stocks and commodities, to say the least.  The Chinese yuan, which had been a catalyst for some recent volatility, stabilized, and actually finished the week slightly firmer.  A dovish read of the FOMC minutes and the continued decline in oil prices dampen ideas that the Fed would hike interest rates in the …
Short Squeeze Lifts Euro and Yen, More to Come? Short Squeeze Lifts Euro and Yen, More to Come?  Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 22, 2015 Rating: 5
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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

August 21, 2015
(from my colleague Ilan Solot)
1) The PBOC signalled more stability in the yuan, and that is what we got.
2) The official survey by the Brazilian central bank is now showing an average forecast for 2016 GDP in negative territory for the first time.
3) There are several takeaways from mass anti-government protests in Brazil last Sunday.
4) The Turk…
Emerging Markets: What has Changed Emerging Markets:  What has Changed Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 21, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Concentration of World Growth

August 21, 2015
The Economist posted this Great Graphic in June but it is arguably even more relevant today.   It shows world growth broken down into four contributors, China, the US, India and ROW (rest of the world).  Europe fits into this catch-all category. 
It is measuring world growth based on 48 countries that account for 86% of the world's GDP.  It al…
Great Graphic: Concentration of World Growth Great Graphic:  Concentration of World Growth Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 21, 2015 Rating: 5
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FX Market Quiets While Equity Markets Head South

August 21, 2015
The US dollar is little changed against most of the major and emerging market currencies as North American traders return to their posts to close out the difficult week.
The notable exception is the Japanese yen.  It is drawing support, as it often does, from the drop in global equities and the decline in US yields.   The dollar has been sold throu…
FX Market Quiets While Equity Markets Head South FX Market Quiets While Equity Markets Head South Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 21, 2015 Rating: 5
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Cool Video: Did China Spark a Currency War?

August 20, 2015
I was on Bloomberg Television's What'd You Miss show yesterday with Joe Weisenthal and Alix Steel.  We talked about several issues, including the claim that China has sparked (another) round in the so-called currency wars.  Click here to see this Cool Video. 

As I have argued in this space, I am skeptical of such claims.  I note that what …
Cool Video: Did China Spark a Currency War? Cool Video:  Did China Spark a Currency War? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 20, 2015 Rating: 5
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The Fed: What is Different This Time?

August 20, 2015
We are trained to be skeptical when someone says this time is different.  It is often meant to justify some excess.  However, we still need to be sensitive to changing circumstances and relationships.  
There are three ways that this monetary cycle is objectively different than past cycles.  First, the Fed has adopted a target range for Fed funds a…
The Fed: What is Different This Time? The Fed:  What is Different This Time? Reviewed by Marc Chandler on August 20, 2015 Rating: 5
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