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Great Graphic: Shifting EMU Trade

July 30, 2015
The ECB's Economic Bulletin neatly summarizes some interesting trends in eurozone trade patterns.   There are four main points.

First, through the early 2000s, most of the trade was between EMU countries.  Since then, however, trade outside of EMU has increased, and in Q1 of this year, extra-EMU trade accounted for more than 55%.

This shift is o…
Great Graphic: Shifting EMU Trade Great Graphic: Shifting EMU Trade Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2015 Rating: 5
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FOMC Helps Dollar, but It's not Running Away

July 30, 2015
The US dollar is broadly firmer in the wake of the FOMC statement, but there are some notable exceptions. The market appears reluctant to sell sterling ahead of next week's MPC meeting, where hawkish dissents are likely.  There will also be the immediate release of the minutes, and new macro-forecasts.  The Australian dollar is resilient in th…
FOMC Helps Dollar, but It's not Running Away FOMC Helps Dollar, but It's not Running Away Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 30, 2015 Rating: 5
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Fed Hike Moving into Focus

July 29, 2015
The Federal Reserve provided limited forward guidance in today's statement.  It said that it "anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the Fed funds rate when it has seem some further improvement in the labor market..."  
This is the key.   There will be two more employment reports that will be released be…
Fed Hike Moving into Focus Fed Hike Moving into Focus Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Great Graphic: Unit Labor Costs in EMU

July 29, 2015
The focus on the European periphery is in terms of the debt overhang.  Many observers see excessive lending by banks and the sovereign debt over-hang as the main cause of European woes. 
Yet in some ways, these problems reflect a deeper cause:  the lack of competitiveness.  One of the key measures of competitiveness is unit labor costs.  It is a f…
Great Graphic: Unit Labor Costs in EMU Great Graphic: Unit Labor Costs in EMU Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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Markets are Hopeful for Fed Clues

July 29, 2015
While the markets wait for no man, the FOMC is a different story.  Janet Yellen is expected to lead the Federal Reserve into taking the first step toward normalizing monetary policy in the coming months.  Although the statement she crafts is unlikely to contain an overt signal of a hike at the next FOMC meeting in September, it is expected to ackn…
Markets are Hopeful for Fed Clues Markets are Hopeful for Fed Clues Reviewed by Marc Chandler on July 29, 2015 Rating: 5
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